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Ankara wants to send 1,000 fighters to the Caucasus, according to online media close to the Syrian opposition in recent weeks. Reports cannot be confirmed. Azerbaijan denies the accusations and accuses belligerent Armenia of being behind the “campaign of lies”.
Turkey has so far left the reports uncommented. However, Ankara has clearly positioned itself in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Turkey will stand by its Azerbaijani brothers,” Erdogan wrote on Twitter on Sunday. Previously, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan had escalated again.
The two former Soviet republics have been fighting for decades over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan, which is predominantly inhabited by Armenians in the Caucasus. Under international law, the Armenian-controlled region with about 145,000 inhabitants belongs to Azerbaijan. A ceasefire has been in place since 1994, but it has been repeatedly broken. Currently, the two countries are fighting the toughest battles in years. Armenia declared a state of war on Sunday.
Turkey has had a close relationship with Azerbaijan for years under the motto “Two states, one nation”. Both countries are culturally close and are also linked by a military alliance. In the past, however, Ankara has not endorsed its “sister state” as clearly as in recent weeks.
“You could see Turkey’s new role as early as July,” Caucasus expert Stefan Meister from the Heinrich Böll Foundation told SPIEGEL. For the first time, Turkey openly supported Azerbaijan. This clear partiality has reached a new dimension.
In summer Turkey had conducted a military exercise in Azerbaijan. Combat planes, attack helicopters and artillery units participated. The move was taken as a warning to Armenia. It cannot be ruled out that some of the military equipment and troops are still in the country.
“Turkey opened a new conflict here”
Under President Erdogan, Turkish foreign policy has become increasingly aggressive in recent years. This can be seen in Syria, Libya or in the dispute over gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara is now increasingly involved in the Caucasus.
“Turkey has opened a new conflict here,” says Meister. In the past, Ankara has been held in the region, but is now intervening more actively. Meister suspects several reasons for the change in strategy.
President Erdogan is under increasing pressure at the national level. The Turkish economy has been in crisis for months. According to polls, Erdogan can no longer obtain the majority he needs to be reelected president in 2023. Meister believes his participation in Azerbaijan could score points with conservative voters. “Especially since the issue of Armenia in Turkey is very emotional.”
At best, Armenia and Turkey are viewed with suspicion, at worst they can be described as hereditary enemies. Ankara is vehemently opposed to recognizing as genocide the massacres that were committed against the Armenian population during the time of the Ottoman Empire.
Fears of further escalation in the Caucasus
Russia backs Armenia as a protecting power. According to Meister, this could be another reason for Turkey’s involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Not only is Turkey trying to establish itself as a regional power, Ankara might also want to send a signal against Russia, which is also trying to dominate the region.
Ankara and Moscow are already pursuing conflicting interests in the conflicts in Syria and Libya. In the Caucasus, they are now on different sides again. Master fears that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will initially escalate. “That can only be stopped with Russia and Turkey. These two powers are the only ones that have a corresponding military presence there,” Meister says.
He only sees a solution if Russia puts pressure on Turkey to refrain from interfering. However, so far Moscow has been repressed.
