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Researchers expect up to 800 deaths per corona per week in November
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The Robert Koch Institute reports 19,059 recently infected people
Germany is preparing for a second lockdown. Bars and restaurants remain open the last weekend before a four-week break applies from Monday. The Robert Koch Institute, meanwhile, reports 19,059 recently infected people, a new record.
Scientists have created calculation models to better understand the development of the pandemic. They were also able to derive the mortality rate for a certain age, from which a specific prognosis arises.
IAccording to one study, many more people will die from a corona infection in the coming weeks than in the last few weeks. The model calculations show that the number of deaths from Covid-19 in Germany is likely to rise from 500 to 800 per week in early November, according to the head of a research group at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen, Viola Priesemann. The increase can be even greater.
The relatively low number of deaths so far is due to the fact that at the end of September most people under the age of 60 were infected with the Sars-CoV-2 virus, explain the scientists led by Priesemann. Since then, the number of reported infections has also increased in people over 60 years of age. With a delay of about two weeks, this also leads to an increase in deaths. Scientists from numerous German research institutions participated in the study.
The team analyzed the increase in new infections reported by age group and determined from the mortality observed in the respective age group how the number of deaths from Covid-19 was developing. “According to a large meta-study, the death rate from corona infection increases 10 times every 20 years of life and reaches about 10 percent around age 82,” he said.
“The results of our model calculations agree very well with the developments seen in all age groups,” Priesemann said. “That is why our forecasts for the next two weeks should also be reliable.” Predictions beyond that are difficult.
According to scientists, the fact that since the end of September more people over 60 have been infected with corona is due to the fact that health authorities can no longer constantly track and isolate the contact persons of those infected. “To regain control of the infection process, the number of cases must be reduced immediately,” the researchers write, according to a report by “Deutsches Ärzteblatt”, in which the study was published.
All current information on the development of the pandemic can be found here.
