Melting ice in the Arctic: “This battle is lost”



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The ice is melting. And that for a long time. There is hardly a better example than the Arctic to show what climate change is doing to Earth.

Christoph Seidler, DER SPIEGEL:
“The Arctic has been warming for about 30 years, let’s say about twice as fast as the rest of the planet.”

This increase has had dramatic consequences in the last decade. And this year the development can look particularly extreme. It is quite normal for Arctic ice to recede in summer. It happens every year. Yet this is what this process looked like in the 1980s. And so in recent years. It becomes clear that much less ice remains at the end of summer now than 30 years ago. And this year it was as little as ever before. On September 15, 3.74 million square kilometers were measured. For comparison: the red line shows the average low between 1981 and 2010.

It is only the second time that the ice sheet is less than 4 million square kilometers. In 2012 alone there was even less ice left, at that time it was only 3.39 million square kilometers.

But why is it so extreme this year?

Christoph Seidler, DER SPIEGEL:
“Several things happened at the same time. The ice melted from above and below at the same time, so to speak. We had several heat waves at the top in quotes. We have also seen that in Siberia, for example, it contributed to these large fires. At the same time, it’s like this: When the ice melts, this white reflective surface in the ocean disappears. Then there is something that is dark. Then it is no longer the case that the incoming solar radiation is reflected. So the water continues to heat up. Then it can heat up and also melt from below. “

Exactly how dramatic development will be in one year also depends on the weather. This year, for example, a storm in Canada’s Arctic region separated the ice floes, which then melted faster. But even without new records, the permanent decline has been visible for a long time.

Christoph Seidler, DER SPIEGEL:
“The 14 years with the least amount of ice that we have, so to speak, since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s, were the last 14 calendar years. In principle, as the researchers say, the entire region has arrived. now to a new climate regime This means that this heat is there and is not turned off. And even in a really cold winter, the ice, if in doubt, would no longer expand as much as it did, for example, in the middle of the century XX.. “

One consequence of climate change is the global sea level. However, the process of melting sea ice does not change this. Because ice is not found in a land mass, but is already part of the sea.

Christoph Seidler, DER SPIEGEL:
“It’s a bit like the cubes in the cola glass, with the ice cubes. When they melt, the cola glass doesn’t overflow either. And it’s similar here too.”

This is different, for example, with the glaciers of Greenland, where the Arctic continental ice is found. When that melts and slides into the sea, the sea level rises. Just a few weeks ago, a 113 square kilometer ice sheet broke off Greenland’s largest remaining glacier. Before that, more and more cracks had appeared over the years.

Antarctica around the South Pole plays an even bigger role in terms of sea level views. Because this is based on a very large continental mass. So there is a lot more continental ice here than it drains into the sea when it melts.

But the melting of sea ice also has serious consequences. First, because the warming of the oceans is directly contributing to global warming. Furthermore, development is also altering Arctic wildlife.

Christoph Seidler, DER SPIEGEL:
“Suddenly, a new ocean is emerging before our eyes. That means that all the ecosystems that exist there are changing. Very classic: the polar bear somehow can no longer hunt as of spring or has difficulty hunting because he cannot may”. approaching where the seals are. The fish are moving in regions further north, where they have not even been in the summer months. And so on “.

There is no end in sight to this development. On the contrary: the prospects for the next few years are quite dire:

Christoph Seidler, DER SPIEGEL:
“There have always been predictions about when the North Pole could be ice-free in summer. And one thing is clear: we are moving in this direction, so to speak. We’ll see if it will be late 2039 or 2042. But it’s going down long. We are now well below long-term trends, and we are also trending down, so to speak. And that’s a process. You would have to work very, very, very, very hard to get the Arctic sea ice for somehow give a chance for the future. I don’t see it. In principle, this is a battlefield where the battle in principle is already fought and lost. But that does not mean that we do not have to worry about this question. It is natural also The amount of CO2 emitted by humanity is important for further development in the Arctic. Arctic ice has, so to speak, very, very bad medium-term cards in summer.

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