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Two federal states elect a new state parliament on Sunday. Will Kretschmann still be at the top of the Greens in Baden-Württemberg? And is there a change of government in Rhineland-Palatinate? Current forecasts.
In a few days, on March 14, the citizens of Baden-württemberg Y Rhineland-Palatinate a new state parliament. The elections are the prelude to the super-election year 2021 and, at the same time, an important test of the state of mind of the federal parties.
In the hot phase of the electoral campaign, the Union is pulling with it Mask Affair around Georg Nüßlein (formerly CSU) and Nikolas Löbel (formerly CDU) many criticisms. Both former politicians are under investigation on suspicion of corruption, shortly before the elections, a major drag on the party. How does this affect voting?
Even before this matter, polls indicated poor results for the CDU. The elections are seen as a milestone before the decision on the candidacy for Chancellor of the Union, for which, in addition to Armin Laschet, the head of CSU, Markus Söder, is also being discussed.
Distribution of votes in Baden-Württemberg
The graph shows the proportion of votes of the various parties in the 2020 state elections compared to 2016. The CDU around the defiant Susanne Eisenmann, currently Minister of Education and Cultural Affairs in the green-black cabinet, has lost favor with the voters according to the polls and it is 25 according to the opinion research institute “INSA” Percentage of about seven percentage points behind the Greens (as of March 11, 2:30 pm). Compared to the 2016 state elections, the party would receive two percentage points less.
Susanne Eisenmann: She is running as the top candidate for the CDU in Baden-Württemberg. (Source: imago images)
For the Greens, Baden-Württemberg means a lot. It is the only state in which they lead the government. However, with Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann, they re-enter the race as favorites. Polls also show rising popularity in the final streak before the elections, currently the Greens are 32 percent, almost two percent more than in the 2016 state elections.
With eleven percent, the FDP is outperforming the SPD in Baden-Württemberg. While the Liberals gained nearly three percentage points, the SPD lost more than two percentage points. According to “INSA”, the AfD is currently in the midfield with 12 percent.
What coalitions are conceivable in the Baden-Württemberg state parliament? On the one hand, the existing government: green-black, that is, a combination of the Greens (43 seats) and the Union (33 seats) with a majority of 76 seats – 61 are needed. On the other hand, there would also be a black-yellow-red alliance with a narrow Majority of 61 possible seats, consisting of Union, FDP (15 seats) and SPD (13 seats). According to current forecasts, the AfD will receive 16 seats, seven fewer than in the 2016 state elections.
Distribution of votes in Rhineland-Palatinate
In Rhineland-Palatinate, Prime Minister Malu Dreyer’s SPD is fighting with challenger Christian Baldauf’s CDU for the position of the most powerful force. In polls, both sides recently went head-to-head. After 30 years in opposition, the CDU wants to replace the ruling SPD. Polls have long sought that it might work too.
But the SPD is on the rise a few days before the elections and was almost able to overtake the CDU, plagued by the mask issue, in an “INSA” poll: both parties currently have 30 percent of the vote. This would mean a loss of almost two percent for the Union and more than six percent for the SPD compared to the 2016 state elections.
The Greens are doing significantly better this year at 12 percent than in 2016 (almost seven percent more). The laggards are the AfD with 10 percent (2.6 percent less), the FDP with six percent (0.2 percent less) and the left with three percent (0.2 percent more). .
Free voters could cause a surprise this year and go to the Rhineland-Palatinate state parliament for the first time. The “INSA” survey currently considers the small party at four percent, a record result. Of the total of 13 state lists available for election, four are running for the first time in a state election. Among them are the Climate List, The Party and the Animal Welfare Party.
How are seats in the Rhineland-Palatinate state parliament distributed and what alliances are possible? A coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP has been in power since 2016. Will the traffic lights coalition last? It would be possible: According to current forecasts, the SPD will receive 34 of the 101 seats, the Greens 14 seats and the FDP 7. This gives the coalition a majority of 55 seats.
Also conceivable would be a black-green alliance, currently only two votes short of a majority, or a Jamaican merger of the CDU, the Greens and the FDP with a 56-seat majority. The AfD would currently have to give up three seats and would have eleven.
