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Exactly three weeks until the biggest election of the year. On November 3, Americans elect a new president. In advance, new surveys are published practically every day. The focus is on the so-called oscillating states. Traditionally, these states cannot be clearly assigned to any political field. Therefore, they are of special importance.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has now extended his lead over US President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden appears in a poll published Monday by Reuters / Ipsos in both states at 51 percent and Trump at 44 percent. A week ago, Biden had been six points ahead in Wisconsin and five points ahead in Pennsylvania.
Americans do not directly elect their president, they decide the composition of the so-called Electoral College. This body, made up of 538 voters, will vote for the president in mid-December.
Each state sends between three and 55 voters, depending on its population. The winner-takes-all principle decides almost everywhere: the electorate votes for the candidate who has received the most votes in their state. It doesn’t matter if the majority in the state is huge or very thin.
In many states, the election is considered practically decided: people there traditionally vote with a clear majority for the candidate of one or the other party. For example, Biden leads in the populous states of California (55 voters) and New York (29), where Democrats regularly win elections. Trump is far ahead in the Republican states of Tennessee (11), Alabama (9) and Kentucky (9).
The focus is on very specific countries
In other states, the races are closer. The results of the elections will largely determine the balance of power in the Electoral College. In some places, the election result is completely open.
Particularly controversial states include:
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Florida (29 voters) and Ohio (18) are classic “swing states.” In the last six presidential elections, the Democratic candidate three times and the Republican candidate three times. Also in 2020, forecasts suggest that the race will be closed.
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Texas (38 voters), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11) have long been dominated by Republicans (in some cases with exceptions in individual elections). This time, Biden’s victory cannot be ruled out.
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In 2016, in the three industrialized states of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), Trump won the first Republican victory since the 1980s and thus the decisive electorate. This time, the forecasts see an advantage for Biden.
