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The new partial lockdown does not initially lead to a wave of layoffs in Germany. The number of unemployed fell by as much as 60,000 to 2.7 million in November. However, after politicians decided to close restaurants, cultural and sports facilities again, part-time work has increased considerably again.
“Fortunately, the job market has not responded with an increase in layoffs at this time,” says Detlef Scheele, director of the Federal Employment Agency. “However, companies are once again more reluctant to seek staff.” Companies posted new part-time jobs for more than half a million employees, significantly more than in previous months.
For the moment, the German model of avoiding redundancies through state-subsidized part-time work continues to work very well. Also seasonally adjusted, the number of unemployed fell in November. However, in the longer term, new restrictions due to the increase in corona infections are likely to burden the job market, although much less than a runaway pandemic would.
Politicians had recently extended the closure of restaurants, culture and sports until mid-December. A renewed extension until January is also possible. Enzo Weber of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) estimates that the partial closure could cost a total of 100,000 jobs. “In no case do I expect a fall like spring,” Weber said. Süddeutsche Zeitung. After the outbreak of the pandemic, more than half a million jobs were lost in a short period of time.
Weber is not too concerned about the recent partial lockdown. Something else worries the researcher much more: the economic reactivation in the summer so far has hardly had an impact on the labor market. From July to October, the German economy grew again by 8.5 percent. In doing so, he made up for much of the accident that had occurred in the spring. However, this rebound has yet to bring any corresponding increase in jobs. There are currently 44.6 million seasonally adjusted employees, civil servants, freelancers and mini-workers, 600,000 fewer than before the pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office reported Tuesday. The number of employed hardly increased from July to November.
“If this continues at this rate, we will need a few more years to offset the impact of the crown. The economic recovery may not solve the problem,” says Weber, who heads the IAB’s Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Division. This threatens permanent damage. For example, when young graduates of schools and universities cannot find any work. Or just poorly paid, below your qualifications.
Besides Corona, there are other charges
But why is the job market recovery so delayed? Many companies have registered part-time jobs due to the pandemic. When the business starts again, let your employees work longer before hiring new ones. In addition, there are other charges besides Corona. Retail, automotive and industry as a whole are in a state of upheaval. More customers shop online, so fewer salespeople are needed in stores. The auto industry is forced to switch to more environmentally friendly units due to climate change, but electric cars can be built with fewer factory workers. Digitization also makes many production jobs superfluous.
Enzo Weber emphasizes that many new jobs can also be created. Both in information technologies and in the social sector, in health and assistance. And, in general, with new products that don’t even exist yet: “We need the dynamism to create something new.” At the moment, however, almost all companies hesitate to hire new employees. Therefore, the researcher asks politicians to create new incentives. Companies should be able to write off investments for tax purposes more quickly. And if you hire someone, the policy should waive social security contributions for up to six months. As a labor turbo, so that the corona pandemic does not trigger a permanent crisis in the German labor market.
