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Is Corona as dangerous as the classic flu? This is the result of at least one American study conducted in April. However, experts criticize methodological weaknesses at work.
Coronavirus: Study with Surprising Results: Is Covid-19 as Dangerous as Classic Flu?
The Stanford Elite University he has now published an explosive study. Therefore, The crown is hardly more dangerous than the normal flu. be The surprising result of the researchers: the Crown mortality rate should between 0.12 and 0.2 percent quantity – and therefore the values of The flu, so the “classic” flu corresponds.
Than Robert Koch Institute currently assumes one Death rate in Germany * of 3.7 percent outside Information varies daily, but is generally around 3.5 percent. If you go after him Johns Hopkins University figures you even get 3.9 percent (6,376 people out of 160,943 confirmed cases have died / as of April 29: 9 p.m.) An average of 39 out of 1,000 people die, now there is a big difference between 0.2 and 3.7 percent. How is this discrepancy explained? How do American scientists reach their conclusion?
Coronavirus: Stanford University tests to detect antibodies: 4.1 percent of test subjects are infected
Stanford investigators did not Examine the blood of volunteer subjects for antibodies *. The last 3,300 participants they were about Facebook recruited and limited to the Santa Clara US District in California
The surprising result: little 4.1 percent of the subjects were infected – this is approximately 85 times the number of officially registered cases.
The study was conducted in early April. In April 1st pointed Santa Clara officially 956 Corona Falls in (As of April 29, there were 2,122) According to the study results, however, significantly more people were already infected at this time.
Coronavirus: If we apply the Stanford study to the German numbers, we would have 3.4 million people infected
The entire Santa Clara district is coming 1.92 million inhabitants (Status: 2019). If 4.1 percent of the population were infected, they would have More than 78,000 people have had a corona infection. That would mean that the death rate is also significantly lower and is only 0.12 to 0.2 percent.
Would you like it Transfer the study results to Germanywould already be over 3.4 million people contract the corona virus. With currently 160,943 cases (Starting April 29 at 9 p.m.) would be very good news. Can significantly more people become infected and not notice it? So isn’t the corona virus as dangerous as expected? Watch out for hasty conclusions.
Coronavirus: Stanford study shows weaknesses – virologist warns
The study of the EE. USA It should not be over-interpreted. The extent to which the work is representative has not yet been evaluated. Experts criticize existing weaknesses at work. Professor Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit of Bernhard Nocht Institute for tropical medicine in Hamburg, he warns of too much optimism.
Opposite bild.de (Article behind the payment barrier) explains the Virologist: “U.S you have to be very careful with the evaluation this study the Antibody teststhat were applied at Stanford Weaknesses. For example, they also target other viruses in the Corona family, which can make the number of positive tests appear larger than they are. “
Coronavirus: virologist’s explanation – comparison between corona and difficult flu
Schmidt-Chanasit also criticizes the comparison with the flu: “The fundamental difference between the flu and the crown is that ConflagrationThis can arise if too many people become infected in a short time. This problem does not exist with the flu, we have a vaccine and many people have partial immunity. In Crown still exists
without full immunity *.“
Before Comparison of corona influenza * It also warns the Robert Koch Institute: RKI Chief Lothar Wieler He recently made it clear that the flu was also dangerous, but the so-called disease burden of the new pathogen was much higher. Corona is much easier to transport and leads in particular to the Risk groups* to much more serious cases and deaths.
Therefore, the virologist has an urgent warning to the population: “If we now say: ‘Oh, it’s not that bad!’ And measures like blocking contacts are loosened too soon and suddenly ten million people in Germany become infected with corona, then our health system breaks down. We see the terrible effects of this in New York and Bergamo. And we want to protect ourselves from this scenario in Germany, and unfortunately, mortality rate studies don’t change that either. ”
Coronavirus: Despite all the criticism: “Good news we can expect”
Therefore, the corona virus will also accompany us for a long time. Schmidt-Chanasit gives little thought to black paint and gives the population some hope: “That the death rate is lower than expected, it’s good news we can expect“
* merkur.de is part of the national network of publishers Ippen-Digital
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Image of rubric list: © dpa / Andrew Milligan
