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If Boris Johnson passes his single market law smoothly in the British House of Commons at third reading today, the chances of a no deal being reached should increase further. But the bill, which undermines the already negotiated exit deal, is controversial, even among Brexit fans.
An analysis by Annette Dittert, ARD-Studio London
It could be that Boris Johnson has gone too far this time. Their tried and tested method of hiding one’s mistakes with new taboos just doesn’t work these days. Not even at your own party.
Since he publicly announced that he would break the exit deal he brokered just nine months ago, the boom has been twisted, even with Brexit devotees. Big-name Tories openly attacked the intended breach of the law as a mistake. Johnson topped the top.
And Theresa May, who has just discovered with joy that she may not have been the worst prime minister of all time, openly attacked Johnson on Monday with a sharpness that is unusual for the otherwise loyal conservative woman. “With this law, the government is risking the integrity of the kingdom,” he told the House of Commons, “and is also risking not only the Good Friday Agreement, but also the reputation of Great Britain around the world.”
Loss of confidence and “no deal”?
In fact, the stakes are high. The EU has announced that it will take legal action against Britain if Johnson does not withdraw the so-called Single Market Act by the end of September. Negotiations may continue at the same time, but time is getting shorter and the loss of confidence in Brussels is likely to be enormous.
Even if the EU is still negotiating stoically, the risk of a “no deal” has increased significantly due to the announced breach of the law. Because Johnson has no plans to withdraw the bill until the end of September. On the contrary.
Today he takes it to Parliament for the third reading, slightly weakened. The innovation: if the law is ever applied, Parliament must re-pass it. It is still a violation of the law, but he hopes to at least reconquer the rebels within the party. A farce, if successful, and another chapter in the island’s endless internal dialogue with itself.
A calculated violation
The EU is unlikely to be impressed by this tactical shift. Because even if the law never takes effect in the end, it is still a breach of the exit agreement. When Johnson tried to break the deadlocked Brexit knot a year ago simply by dissolving the House of Commons whose attitude he did not like, the British High Court outlawed his brazen move and reversed it. However, in the emotional turmoil that followed, his opponents lost their nerve and he won the much-needed parliamentary elections. It may be that your calculation was similar this time. As much noise as possible to get the opponent out of position.
But here is the central problem. A successful deal has no winners or losers. Instead, there must be trust, dialogue and a willingness to compromise on both sides. If Johnson now declares the EU an arch enemy and opponent of the island in increasingly strident tones, in the short term he may distract from the failure to deliver on his own Brexit promises, but in the long run he will destroy any basis for a successful post-Brexit policy. January 1, 2021. And not only that.
The damage can be long term
Ironically, Johnson’s planned breach of the law is now also jeopardizing Brexit’s real core goal: “global Britain” – the desire to reappear as a great sovereign power in the world. And again it was Theresa May who summed it up in the House of Commons. “How can other countries trust us in the future if we want to conclude new trade agreements with them?”
Margaret Thatcher once optimistically formulated Britain’s eternal quest for their own role and identity in April 1982. “I think Britain has now found its role. It is upholding international law and teaching the nations of the world how to live.” . This may sound a bit arrogant today, but Thatcher’s unwavering faith in law and order has been the foundation of a literally conservative party for decades.
Today’s parliamentary vote will show how profoundly Boris Johnson was able to alter the moral compass of his conservatives.
