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August 31, 2020 8:12 pm | By A. Pollmann, A. Haase and T. Tsafos, dpa
The conflict between NATO partners Turkey and Greece continues to escalate. Turkish President Erdogan encourages supporters of Athens in Paris. The EU faces another test.
Anyone who believed that the tone of the dispute over natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean could not become even more aggressive will be better taught earlier this week. “We are not running away from the struggle. In this struggle we are not afraid of leaving martyrs and veterans behind,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened on Sunday night in the direction of Greece and its supporters. The question is: “Are those who currently oppose us in and around the Mediterranean Sea willing to make the same sacrifices?”
“Do the Greek people accept what will happen to them because of their greedy and incompetent leaders?” He asked. “Do the French people know the price they will pay for their greedy and incompetent leaders?”
Erdogan’s response was apparently to Greece’s announcement last week that it would expand its territory in the Ionian Sea from six to twelve nautical miles. Turkey is not affected by this, but in Ankara the news was taken as a sign that Greece could also designate a twelve-mile zone around its islands near Turkey. “That would be a reason for a war, the Casus Belli,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.
Turkey wants a central role in energy supply
What is a simple saber rattling and what is serious? The more the conflict over natural gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean intensifies, the more uncertain it is. By demonstrating its military might, Turkey wants to secure dominance in the region, says Hürcan Asli Aksoy, deputy director of the Center for Applied Turkish Studies at the Science and Policy Foundation. .
Military exercise off Cyprus: warships from Greece, Italy, Cyprus and France participate in the maneuver. (Source: Str / Greek Ministry of Defense / dpa)
Turkey has also struggled for years to play a central role in energy supply, said Simon Schulte from the Institute for Energy Economics at the University of Cologne. That is why it also claims to have a voice in the eastern Mediterranean, where Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt want to exploit large fields of natural gas.
Greece, on the other hand, accuses Turkey of “limitless expansionism” and accuses leaders in Ankara of illegally exploring natural gas deposits off the Greek islands. Ankara rejects the accusations. The government takes the position that the waters in which it seeks natural gas belong to the Turkish continental shelf.
Determination of maritime boundaries without consultation
The background of the conflict are different legal understandings regarding the recognition, use and delimitation of maritime areas. The main point of contention is the question of what territorial claims can be derived from the possession of islands. In the end, both sides provoked each other simply by setting the boundaries of the sea area without involving the other. Turkey concluded an agreement with the government of Libya, Greece in turn with Egypt.
Research Vessel Oruc Reis – Explores natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean for Turkey. (Source: Yoruk Isik / Reuters)
Erdogan emphasizes that Turkey is not targeting the legitimate interests of others. However, Turkey with its long Mediterranean coastline will not be tolerated. The current doctrine of Turkey in the surrounding seas is called “Mavi Vatan” – “Blue Homeland”.
The conflict is very explosive for the EU and could even become another test. The reason for this is that Greece and Cyprus, which are also involved, are demanding the solidarity and support of the Union in their dispute with Turkey. From the point of view of the two countries, Ankara should, when in doubt, give in to tough economic sanctions from the EU.
However, this is controversial in the EU. Behind the scenes, diplomats admit that the current Turkish activities in the eastern Mediterranean are clearly provocative, but may not violate international law at all, because they are simply gas exploration and not actual drilling. It would be highly questionable whether these activities could be the basis for EU sanctions.
The refugee treatment is failing, again?
Furthermore, EU countries are concerned that further deterioration in relations with Turkey could lead to Ankara sending some of the Syrian refugees living in the country to the EU.
The situation is especially complicated by the fact that even Germany and France do not agree on the issue. While the German government is doing everything it can to reduce tensions and mediate, French President Emmanuel Macron recently even increased the French military presence in the eastern Mediterranean as a sign of solidarity with Greece and Cyprus. One reason is that, in addition to the Italian group Eni, the French energy giant Total is also involved in projects in the region.
Now there could be a showdown at the EU summit on September 24-25. If the ongoing mediation efforts by the German government, NATO, and the EU’s foreign affairs officer, Josep Borrell, are unsuccessful by then, possible EU sanctions against Turkey should be discussed.
