[ad_1]
Even after two years, Venezuela’s opposition leader Guaidó has failed to remove President Maduro from the throne. The election this Sunday could spell his political end.
He took thousands of people to the streets and incited soldiers to riot, appealed for support for his counter-government around the world, and gained access to foreign accounts. It was not of use. Almost two years after Juan Guaidó declared himself Venezuela’s transitional head of state, his rival Nicolás Maduro is still seated in the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas.
On Sunday, Guaidó is likely to get out of control of the National Assembly, where the opposition has had a majority since 2015. In parliamentary elections, 277 members are elected. Most opposition parties are expecting electoral fraud and have therefore called for a boycott. Thus, observers expect a victory for Maduro’s ruling socialist party, the PSUV, and splinter parties close to the government. This would mean that the opposition would lose the last institution it controlled.
Fair elections are not possible in Venezuela
“On December 6, the dictatorship wants to commit electoral fraud,” Guaidó said in an audio message this week. “Even the minimum conditions for the elections have not been met. Our party leaders are prohibited from voting, are in jail or in exile. The best we can do is boycott the elections.” The opposition is planning a referendum the week after the elections and has called protests against Maduro on December 12.
The international community also has little hope for free and fair elections. The EU refuses to send observers because it was only informed about the elections at very short notice. The Organization of American States (OAS) said that free and fair elections are currently not possible in Venezuela.
Military supports Maduro
Venezuela is going through a deep political crisis. Guaidó declared himself interim president in early 2019 and was recognized as a legitimate head of state by numerous countries, including the United States and Germany. However, he never managed to prevail in Venezuela. Maduro is supported mainly in the struggle for power by powerful military personnel. The United Nations accuses the security forces of serious human rights violations.
While Guaidó had initially managed to rally the South American country’s notoriously divided opposition behind him, divisions between moderate and hard-line opponents of the government came to light again with continued failure. “Because Guaido’s strategy is less and less imaginative, unpredictable and desperate, it was only a matter of time before support for him waned,” said Alejandro Velasco of New York University, the specialized portal “Latin America Advisor.”
96 percent live in poverty
The once rich country is also sinking deeper into a humanitarian crisis. Due to the lack of foreign exchange and the numerous penalties, it is difficult to import food, medicine and essential items. Even gasoline is now in short supply in the country with the world’s largest oil reserves. According to a study by the Andrés Bello Catholic University, 96 percent of households live in poverty. Millions of Venezuelans have left their homes.
Small new opposition alliances and parties kidnapped by government officials will participate in the parliamentary elections. “We will see elections in which the government participates practically alone and an opposition that does not fundamentally question the government’s position,” said the rector of the Andrés Bello University, José Virtuoso, in an interview with the human rights organization Provea.
Reconciliation with the Maduro government is possible
Others hope that a more moderate opposition in the National Assembly can restart the stalled dialogue with the government. “If the government is willing to appear less authoritarian and discuss the laws in parliament, that could have a satisfactory effect,” said political scientist Ricardo Sucre of the German press agency.
For Guaidó, on the other hand, Sunday’s elections could be the beginning of the end of his political adventure, which began as a hussar piece and finally threatened to die of exhaustion. “Guaidó’s legal legitimacy is based on his presidency in the National Assembly. The opposition’s moral legitimacy is based on its democratic values,” says Professor Velasco. “If Guaidó considers remaining interim president, he is jeopardizing legal and moral legitimacy.”
