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meIn the confusion surrounding the new infection registries in Europe, the rather casual words of Michael Ryan, director of emergency aid for the World Health Organization (WHO), nearly sank this week. The latest data showed a stabilization and, in some cases, even a decline in Covid 19 cases in Brazil, the Irishman said, but immediately dampened optimism.
Just because the numbers are falling now doesn’t automatically mean the situation can’t get worse, Ryan said. In fact, the situation in Brazil has improved significantly recently. The tremendously long and alarmingly bright red map of the newspaper “Folha” was colored mainly in relaxed blue on Wednesday night. Only in the northeastern state of Ceará are cases increasing, in the other 25 states the numbers are at least stable, but mostly decreasing.
Source: WORLD infographic
For many months, many Europeans looked critically at Brazil and also the United States, which quickly became world crown hot spots. Right-wing populist presidents Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro were seen as an irrational alternative to the responsible politics of the German and European crown. But now, a look at the world map shows: The situation of the crown in the EU is suddenly worse than in the US and Brazil. Was Europe dominant too soon?
In July, at the height of the crisis in Brazil with 60,000 new infections in one day, Bolsonaro shook his head in Europe when he said: “Life goes on. Most of them are primarily concerned with their work. We have to get back to work, otherwise the economy could get into a very difficult situation. “
That said, the Brazilian president, who was always critical of the lockdown and instead campaigned for a business-friendly course, on the same day his own corona infection became known.
Bolsonaro, however, cared little for the advice of health experts, which encouraged his compatriots to keep working, unlike many local governors. “I will not send my people into poverty just to get the praise from the media.” Due to such statements, the opposition holds him jointly responsible for the around 150,000 deaths per crown in the country so far.
Europe has overtaken Brazil in new infections
WHO official Michael Ryan recalled this week that huge Brazil is the size of a continent and that therefore the government must remain vigilant. If Brazil (210 million inhabitants) is compared with the European Union (446 million) and the United States (328 million), surprising details come to light.
On September 18, almost a month ago, Europe surpassed Brazil (216,940) in new weekly infections (228,425) for the first time since May 8, and the gap has been widening since then, to the detriment of the EU. Of course, these are absolute numbers. But also in relation to population, the pandemic in the EU is now developing much more dynamically than in Brazil and the United States.
Source: WORLD infographic
On October 13, the EU reported 460,378 new weekly infections, Brazil only had 176,173 at this time. And the second wave has just started in Europe, and it should make the gap widen significantly. In Brazil, by contrast, the infection curve does not yet show a second wave. Since October 4, the EU (306,195) has also been ahead of the US (304,146) and has also continuously expanded its “lead” here.
Experts take on large numbers of unreported cases
It can be argued that Brazil tests significantly less. In fact, it is. The test quota per 1000 inhabitants is well below that of the US or Germany. In Brazil, however, it is currently being tested no less than during the height of the first wave, so the current stabilization of the infection curve cannot only be attributed to more cautious testing. In USA, the test rate is even higher than the German one. European figures are not available to a comparable extent.
And Europe is also doing worse in terms of mortality, that is, the proportion of infected people who die from the Covid-19 lung disease. On October 13, the rate was 4.3 percent in the EU, 3.0 percent in Brazil and 2.8 percent in the United States. Due to the sometimes high number of unrecognized infections, the mortality of the case does not correspond to the real probability of dying from Covid-19.
Source: WORLD infographic
Meanwhile, there are the first studies in Brazil that claim to have detected signs of herd immunity. However, they are only the beginning of the scientific discussion and are currently still controversial. So far, 5.1 million infections have been recorded in Brazil since the pandemic began. However, the number of unreported cases is assumed to be very high, and estimates suggest that the actual number of infected people could be up to 50 million people.
Regardless of this, it cannot be denied that the number of cases in Brazil is declining: the G1 portal reported on Wednesday night that the average number of infections in the last seven days had fallen below 20,000 for the first time since the end of may. And this after Brazilians have returned to relatively normal everyday life: party life is back in full swing and restaurants and beaches are well-attended on weekends.
A few days ago, João Doria, the governor of the most populous state of São Paulo, declared the so-called green phase for five regions in which 76 percent of the 44 million inhabitants live. This means that cinemas, theaters or museums and, more importantly, the events industry can get back on track, albeit with a maximum capacity of 60 percent and the corresponding hygiene standards.
Doria, Bolsonaro’s internal political opponent from the conservative side, claims for himself the success in the face of the pandemic, which he attributes to measures such as the use of a mask, distance and disinfection. But early São Paulo scientists have also contacted us, speculating instead on herd immunity, which could have slowed the epidemic.
In Argentina the situation is out of control
Brazil’s path through the pandemic is sparking interest around the world, not just from scientists but also from politicians. Hardly any German talk show that does not warn of the “fall of Brazil”. Bolsonaro has also received a barrage from his supposed political friend Donald Trump. “Brazil has some problems, there’s no question about that,” Trump said on May 20, when the United States had twice as many deaths as Brazil.
And just a few weeks ago, Argentine politician Daniel Gollán made fun of the neighboring country. “If we follow the Bolsonaro Doctrine, we would have between 25,000 and 30,000 deaths,” said the Minister of Health of the Province of Buenos Aires in early August. The national and foreign media have seen Argentina’s left-wing president Alberto Fernández as an alternative to Bolsonaro for imposing a harsh blockade on the country for weeks.
About two months later, the situation in Argentina is completely out of control: because the economy was on the verge of collapsing due to the long shutdown, the government gave the green light to reopen shopping malls in Buenos Aires after seven months. Ironically, the day the country reached the death line of 25,000 people.
Although the country is being forced out of economic difficulties and also because pressure from the streets is increasing, the number of infections and deaths is increasing rapidly. The collateral damage of the confinement is now evident: hundreds of thousands of Argentines have fallen below the poverty line.
Bolsonaro could not resist a malicious lead in the direction of Buenos Aires: he was sorry, but the Argentines deserved it because they had chosen the wrong government, he said.
Recovering Brazil has another advantage: spring and summer are just around the corner. Winter is only cold in the south of the country, now six months have begun in which most of the social life takes place abroad. In Europe, however, the dark season begins. It has been cold in Germany and many other European countries for two weeks, and more and more people are back indoors. This also makes the infection curves more likely to diverge further.
