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German intensive care doctors demand closure by end of March
How do crown mutations affect intensive care unit occupancy?
The Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine comments on the occupancy of intensive care units. You can find out what an extrapolation resulted in, taking into account the faster spread through mutations, in the video.
According to a model by intensive care physicians, an opening on March 8 will lead to a rapid rise in corona deaths despite the vaccination strategy. A terror scenario of more than 25,000 patients in intensive care units could be prevented with a prolonged closure.
DThe German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI) ruled Thursday in favor of extending the shutdown until April 1. In the future, relaxation measures should no longer be decided on the basis of the seven-day incidence, but rather the R-value.
It is not recommended to open it on March 8, otherwise the third wave will arrive in June with a peak of around 25,000 patients in intensive care units.
This horror scenario assumes that the R value remains at 1.2 and that vaccinations for those over 35 years of age continue until mid-August. DIVI calculated this using a prognostic model with three scenarios, including the vaccination strategy and the mutant virus B.1.1.7.
Source: WORLD infographic
“If we open on April 1, we will have enough time to vaccinate the elderly. Then we can successfully contain the pandemic, “said DIVI President Gernot Marx. Containment is only possible if at least 80 percent of Germans are vaccinated to establish herd immunity.
If vaccinations for those over 35 years of age are completed by the end of June and the R value remains at or below 1, the relaxation measures would lead to a maximum value of a maximum of 3400 intensive care patients as of March 8. According to the RKI, the R value on Wednesday night is 0.98.
According to the model, the worst situation would be a relaxation in early March, as the federal and state governments plan to discuss next Wednesday (March 3). If the measures were maintained until April, the infection rate would continue to flatten, also because the vaccination campaign would advance even further.
Certainly some will be surprised when DIVI calls for a closure for April. But the German health system can hardly control 25,000 patients, ”said former DIVI president Uwe Janssens. But a renewed wave would also mean having to postpone other operations on patients without a crown. “Even employees in intensive care units couldn’t cope with this.”
“It’s about three, a maximum of four weeks of discipline. The current situation is about whether we will be exponential again and how much exponential, ”said Professor Christian Karagiannidis, head of the DIVI intensive care registry. “Either we lose in suspension time or we win.” As early as December, intensive care physicians had positioned themselves from the outset as advocates for the harsh blockade that followed.
