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Thursday, January 28, 2021
For the first time in three months
RKI: Corona incidence falls below 100
According to the Robert Koch Institute, the seven-day incidence of coronavirus spread in Germany is below the 100 mark for the first time in three months. Incidence is a key benchmark for the imposition and relaxation of restrictions in the pandemic.
Germany has overcome a major hurdle in the pandemic winter: Thanks to the strict lockdown, the number of infections has been cut in half since Christmas. The Robert Koch Institute calculated the 7-day incidence (the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week) as 98. The previous peak was reached on December 22, 198. So far, the stated goal of the federal and state governments It has been to reduce the incidence from 7 days to less than 50. If the positive evolution continues, it could theoretically be achieved in mid or late February. But scientists believe that waiting for quick relief is the wrong sign. Germany shouldn’t risk its success, advises physicist Viola Priesemann of the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization. From their point of view, there will only be more freedom for everyone when the incidence is reduced to 10 or less, like last summer.
Last year, an incidence of 50 was defined as the threshold up to which the nearly 400 German health authorities can keep the situation under control: in other words, find all the contact persons of infected people and send them to quarantine. It is important to quickly reach the value 50, “so that later we can talk about vacancies”, argues Chancellor Angela Merkel. There are no automatic mechanisms: to what thresholds the corona measures are going to be relaxed is a question that must be resolved politically.
SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach tweeted Wednesday night: “I am going to argue in favor of continuing the lockdown,” until an incidence of 25 is reached. For researchers like Viola Priesemann, the incidence of around 100 it’s just a small middle goal. She believes that it is necessary to reduce the infection rate by more than half: 50, 25 and finally 12.5. From the previous goal of 50, your calculation would take another two to four weeks before you could think of a little more normalcy. The researcher promotes her theory that it is a worthwhile journey for everyone. It is like a fire. Either under control or not. “There is no half control in a fire.”
The 50 mark could be reached in mid-February.
She is not alone in her opinion. Charité virologist Christian Drosten has already warned against loosening too quickly, despite progressive vaccinations in risk groups. Other virologists also want buffers beyond the 50 target mark. This is also due to variants of the virus that are more contagious. “We see a weekly decrease in new infections of around 20 percent in Germany,” calculates Sebastian Binder, a systems immunologist at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research. “That would mean 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week in mid-February.” The institute is working on simulations of how quickly mutations can take hold and how this can affect the infection process. There are no quantitative results yet. “But it is quite clear that the British variant, if it prevails, will require significantly more stringent measures to stabilize or reduce the number of cases,” says Binder. It is currently very important to prevent this variant from spreading as much as possible.
“Overall, Britain’s experience is worrying,” the scientist added. “With the current reduction, I consider that the easing in mid-February is risky if the number of cases is to be kept low.” Otherwise, he feared a new crash in the episode. “By the way, this applies even to the known virus type, but all the more so with the risk that the new variant will spread.”
Good chances of controlling the pandemic
But Binder also sees a good chance of regaining control of the pandemic, at an infection level like last summer and without severe general restrictions. “In such a scenario, responses can be locally adapted if outbreaks occur,” he says. All other regions could manage to keep their distance, wear a mask, hygiene, and some other restrictions. “At the current rate, even without slowing down, it will be necessary until mid-April until we are below 10 cases per week and 100,000 inhabitants,” says Binder. So it’s after Easter. “The problem is people who do not even know they are carriers of the virus and accidentally take it to schools or nursing homes, to friends and acquaintances,” says researcher Priesemann. “That happens when there are a large number of cases. And that happens despite protection measures.”
Therefore, the management of the pandemic should not be based solely on hospital capabilities. Testing and vaccination capabilities are limited. There is still no answer to the question of how long immunity lasts. The higher the number of cases, the more likely it is that new variants of the virus can bypass the immune system and vaccines. “And then you’re almost back to zero.”
Note: The RKI figures generally deviate slightly from the case data that ntv.de reports daily at night. The ntv.de data team has direct access to federal state registration figures published by ministries and local authorities. The RKI, on the other hand, is linked to legally prescribed reporting channels, which can lead to a delay.
In addition, the respective daily values map different recording periods: the ntv assessment collects the country information published at night and uses it to calculate a daily status of the number of reported cases, which is generally published as of 8 pm The RKI’s recording system, on the other hand, takes into account incoming reports up to midnight, and the current status of the data is announced the next morning.
