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reGermans fear economic difficulties. Because the Corona crisis is now affecting many households, sometimes very sensitively. At the end of the 2020 pandemic year, only one in three German citizens described their own economic situation as positive.
There are as few as the last one in 2009, in the midst of the financial crisis at the time. This is demonstrated by the annual survey of consumer sentiment by the consulting firm EY, to which WELT is exclusively available.
Source: WORLD infographic
And the outlook is anything but rosy: Only 16 percent of the 1,000 or more consumers surveyed by phone in November expect their financial situation to improve in 2021. It has never been less since the first survey in 2008.
“Meanwhile, the pandemic and the massive economic recession have left their mark: there is a certain degree of uncertainty among German citizens, more and more people are wondering how long their own work will be safe,” says Ev Bangemann, director of retail and consumer goods. Hey.
In fact, concerns about one’s own work are increasing, across all age groups and income groups. Only 35 percent of those surveyed consider their job to be “very safe,” which is a new low.
Source: WORLD infographic
For comparison: in 2018, half of the German population felt completely safe, in 2016 it was even two-thirds.
At least 52 percent still believe in the current survey that their job is “safer.” “Fairly unsafe” or even “very unsafe” is a total of 13 percent, a similarly high value was last seen seven years ago.
GfK market researchers also confirm the emerging fear of lost income and job losses, examining the consumer climate on a monthly basis and referring to the recent shutdown as a “difficult phase” in their current January barometer.
The closure of public life means noticeably shorter work due to closures. “And that leads to a loss of income for the affected employees,” says GfK expert Rolf Bürkl.
In addition, it is to be feared that even more companies face the risk of bankruptcy. “But this increases the fear of job loss and has a negative impact on income prospects.”
In any case, GfK does not see a quick change. And the EY poll also indicates great skepticism. Although at least some young people still hope for a better personal financial situation in 2021, this group also includes young professionals whose wallets will inevitably get bigger.
However, with age, confidence that the economic situation itself will improve in 2021 wanes. And in the age groups 56 and over, pessimists predominate.
There is also a dichotomy regarding income classes: while high and high income people are optimistic above average, the outlook for low income people is devastating.
Bigger purchases have to wait
Behind this is a critical look at the economic situation. Only 20 percent of those surveyed expect the economic situation in Germany to improve in 2021, while one in three assume that it will deteriorate.
Especially since the vast majority of German citizens expect the national economy to take several years to overcome the crisis in the Crown.
After all, 36 percent of consumers believe that a full recovery won’t be possible until 2023 at the earliest. In view of this uncertain evolution, many households want to cut back in the coming months.
The EY study says savings should be made primarily for larger individual purchases, such as cars, kitchens, or sofas, but also for entertainment electronics and home and apartment renovation work.
Consumers want to spend a lot more money just on food and clothing. When it comes to vacations, restaurant visits and car trips, savings plans and expected increases in spending are balanced.
This is not good news for much of the retail industry, especially after many businesses have been affected because the all-important Christmas business has been canceled in some cases. The German Retail Association (HDE) already anticipates up to 50,000 bankruptcies in the retail sector.
But there still seems to be hope for the battered industries. Because despite poor prospects and expectations, the Germans will not let their joy of life be taken away from them.
After all, three out of four consumers are generally optimistic about the medium and long-term future, and younger people (up to 45 years old) are slightly more confident than older people (56 years old and older).
“The basic trust of the majority of German citizens cannot be emphasized enough,” says EY Bangemann expert, “because from this we can conclude how things will continue after the harsh months of lockdown and the restrictions we have. in front”.
If the situation relaxes over the course of 2021 and more and more people get vaccinated, there will be a lot to do to catch up, and a huge demand for holidays, events and culture, but also shopping experiences. “Until then, we have to hang on,” says Bangemann.
The Ifo Institute in Munich sees it in a similar way. Its researchers assume that consumers have saved around 100 billion euros in recent months due to canceled trips or forcing them not to visit restaurants.
And at least some of this supported purchasing power could flow into consumption in 2021 and bring some recovery. However, the basic requirement appears to be nationwide vaccination against the coronavirus, which, however, will likely take several months until the majority of the population is effectively protected.
At least the beginning is done. Vaccinations have been carried out in this country since December 27, but there is widespread skepticism about the active ingredient. According to a poll by the YouGov polling institute, 32 percent of respondents want to get vaccinated as soon as possible.
Another 33 percent are also determined, but want to wait and see the possible consequences of vaccination for others. 19 percent have decided not to get vaccinated, 16 percent are still undecided.
The results of the respondents in the EY survey, according to which the fear of the disease in relation to their own financial situation, has increased by leaps and bounds.
According to this, 36 percent of German citizens are very afraid of a possible disease, with 44 percent more still mild fears. Only 20 percent are unconcerned in this regard.
Source: WORLD infographic
Concern for environmental pollution is as high at a total of 75 percent. Only then will the cost of living rise by around 67 percent and energy prices and the economic slowdown in Germany by 67 percent each.
The refugee crisis in Europe, on the other hand, seems to be employing fewer and fewer people: 56 percent of people in Germany are concerned about this problem, that’s nine percentage points less than a year ago.
