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The automatic calypse is coming soon: while around 3.6 million cars were registered in Germany in 2019, there could be dramatic drops in car sales in 2025, when the new Euro 7 emissions standard will take effect. The oracle was the newspaper “Bild”, the origin of the horror scenario is the study of a European group of experts, the “Advisory Group on Vehicle Emission Standards”.
The 66-page research group document, which is available to SPIEGEL, contains suggestions for redesigning the next emissions standard. It is based on tests of various passenger cars that meet Euro 6d-temp and 6d emission standards. Above all, the emission of harmful nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are also responsible for the diesel driving bans imposed in some places, should be significantly reduced again in the future as a result of the new standard.
30 milligrams of nitrogen oxide instead of 80
In the future, new cars should only be allowed to emit 30 milligrams of nitrogen oxides per kilometer; in a second scenario, which is described in the study, it would be only ten milligrams. Until now, gasoline engines have been allowed to emit 60 milligrams per kilometer, diesel even 80.
In addition to the NOx values, other polluting emissions must be reduced. At the same time, the so-called RDE test, in which compliance with the limit values for pollutants in real driving is verified, will be significantly more stringent:
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The allowed ambient temperature should be increased from minus seven degrees Celsius to 35 degrees Celsius to minus ten to 40 degrees Celsius.
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A previously awarded cold start bonus will no longer apply, as will the maximum altitude restriction for trials to a maximum of 1,600 meters.
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Conditions that were previously excluded from RDE testing, such as short distances, intermittent traffic, and rapid acceleration or pulling a trailer, should also be part of the testing in the future.
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Furthermore, the limit values should be respected for 15 years or 240,000 kilometers instead of the 160,000 kilometers as before.
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At the same time, the measurement tolerances that are given for mobile measurements should be removed.
An unidentified source described the “Bild” newspaper’s proposal as a “declaration of war on diesel and gasoline.” No combustion engine can achieve these values. The president of the Automotive Industry Association, Hildergard Müller, also warned the German Press Agency of a fatal blow: “With the introduction of the planned EU-7 standard, the EU Commission will de facto ban cars with diesel engines. internal combustion from 2025 “.
The ADAC also sees a considerable need for discussion, but further adjustment of the cutoff values is welcome, explained technology president Karsten Schulze. However, these should be technically feasible and “shouldn’t make the combustion engine spin out of control,” says Schulze.
Many current diesel models emit little NOx
But what are the real consequences of stricter limit values? And are they really impossible? Stefan Carstens from exhaust specialist EngineSens Motorsensor considers the proposal to be technically feasible. “Even today, many models reduce 30 milligrams of NOx per kilometer, even in the RDE cycle,” says Carstens. Therefore, the value does not surprise him, and China has already presented a limit of 35 milligrams per kilometer, argues the emissions expert.
Measurement data from ADAC also shows that the significantly lower value, at least for nitrogen oxides, can already be achieved today. Several vehicles exceeded the 30-milligram limit in RDE tests conducted by the automobile club. A BMW 520d Touring and an Opel Astra 1.6 D reached a value of one milligram of NOx per kilometer in the ADAC test, a Mercedes C220d was even zero grams, but under less stringent test conditions than those proposed now.
It’s not the end of gasoline and diesel engines
“The proposed limit values for carbon monoxide, methane and fine dust are also feasible,” says Carstens. The longer service life of 240,000 kilometers is not a problem either. In the United States, a similar value of 150,000 miles (about 241,400 km) already applies, according to Carstens. “The proposed limit values for Euro 7 would not destroy diesel and gasoline engines, nor are they a nail in the coffin,” says the emissions expert. Carstens admits that they will make the aftertreatment of the exhaust gases and therefore the entire vehicle more expensive, which would make electric cars more competitive.
It also considers a real RDE test feasible, in which simply driving on the highway without a test cycle, and meeting the limit values in real traffic is technically possible. But that will lead to lower performance. “Speeds above 200 km / h are probably no longer possible,” says Carstens. However, the expert believes that the idea that limit values must also be observed when towing a trailer goes too far. “This is difficult for the manufacturer to simulate beforehand, as the shape and weight of the trailer have a great influence here,” says Carstens.
The environmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) believes that the proposals for the new emissions standard can also be implemented. “The limit values currently being planned in Brussels for Euro 7 are based on an assessment of available technologies and are achievable,” says Jens Müller, Head of Air Quality at T&E.
Even the strictest scenario with a NOx limit value of 10 milligrams for diesel is realistic from Müller’s point of view, if all the technologies already available today for cleaning exhaust gases are widely used, they are used in a optimal and coordinate with each other. However, this would be a significant cost factor for manufacturers, who would then have to install these components in smaller and comparatively inexpensive vehicles.
The decision on Euro 7 will not be made until 2021
However, it is not yet clear whether Euro 7 will enter into force with the parameters now proposed. This is because the 66-page document is only a preliminary proposal from an inquiry committee commissioned by the Commission to address potential limit values and their design.
So far, no decision has been made on the appearance, scope, limits or timing of the future emissions standard, a spokesman for the EU Commission said on request. The Commission does not intend to present a specific proposal for Euro 7 until the last quarter of next year.
In fact, the next emissions standard could be strict. The EU Commission said on request that no delay or withdrawal of the EU environmental targets will be accepted. But they are also working to ensure that the internal combustion engine can continue to run at its best performance in the necessary transition period. “We will propose rules that will be ambitious and realistic,” the spokesman announced.
