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In the dispute over the EU budget and the protection of the rule of law, no solution is in sight, on the contrary: three days before the decisive meeting of the heads of state and government, the tone towards Hungary and Poland intensifies. The other 25 EU states are now giving the two countries an ultimatum: Either they will abandon their veto against the next seven-year EU budget, or the other 25 countries will separate the Crown reconstruction package from the budget and make one. new. hang up.
“We need an agreement today or tomorrow at the latest, or clear signals from Hungary and Poland,” a senior EU diplomat said on Monday. If that doesn’t happen, “we will go to scenario B”. This means that the other EU countries will reissue the Corona package with the help of the enhanced cooperation instrument or as part of a multilateral agreement. Poland and Hungary would leave empty-handed.
At the summit on Thursday and Friday, the confrontation was initially expected. But now, according to the will of the EU leaders, the issue should no longer be discussed in a major way. Poland and Hungary would have to give in beforehand, the diplomat said. If that doesn’t happen, you have to make preparations “that go in a different direction.”
The “nuclear option” becomes EU policy
Warsaw and Budapest are currently blocking the next seven-year budget with their veto and thus also the EU Crown reconstruction package. He wants to force the rest of the EU to abandon the envisaged rule of law mechanism. Starting in 2021, it should make it possible to sanction violations of the rule of law by cutting EU funds.
In exchange, the idea of removing the Corona package from the general budget and relaunching it without Poland and Hungary was initially suggested by the hardliners as a last resort to force Warsaw and Budapest to give in. The fact that this scenario, also known as the “nuclear option”, is now becoming the official EU line not only marks a clear escalation of the dispute. It also shows that Brussels is losing patience with Hungary and Poland. After conservative national governments in both countries systematically shut down critical media, undermined the independence of the judiciary, and harassed critical minorities and organizations in recent years, the EU is apparently no longer ready to make more commitments, but to fight. against the matter.
If the other 25 countries get serious and reissue the € 750 billion Corona package between them, not only will Hungary lose six billion and Poland around € 24 billion, which they would get from the program according to previous plans. . Their influence, which consisted in blackmailing the other EU countries with the plight of the crisis countries of the crown, would also be taken out of their hands.
Hungary’s and Poland’s veto against the regular seven-year EU budget would still be in the area, which at € 1.074 billion is even more extensive than the Corona package. But here too Brussels threatens to take tough measures. The Commission is already working on an emergency budget for 2021. In an interview with group leaders in the EU Parliament, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated, according to participants, that her authority would have between 50 and 75 percent of which are particularly important for Poland and Hungary next year. It could withhold structural funding.
Poland’s head of government talks about power
Budapest and Warsaw, however, have so far not been impressed, at least rhetorically. Both countries would maintain their veto on the budget, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said on Monday after a meeting with his Polish counterpart. “We have confirmed that we support each other,” Szijjártó said in a video posted on Facebook. Attempts to break this alliance “will not work.”
However, such a break had recently signaled Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin: he had indicated that Poland could abandon its veto if the EU provided the rule of law mechanism with an additional statement that would ensure that it would not be used unjustifiably against individual countries.
The side of Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro had a different opinion. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki felt compelled to speak a word of power: In the tense negotiating situation, Poland was only allowed to speak with one voice, said his adviser Krzysztof Szczerski. “There should be no suggestions from anyone else now.”
Also in Budapest, people give little thought to the idea of the supplementary statement. “If I add some explanation on how to put a little note in a bulletin board with a thumbtack, that won’t work,” Orbán told a Hungarian radio station. At the same time, he harshly criticized Manfred Weber, the head of the European People’s Party in the EU Parliament, to which Fidesz de Orbán also belongs.
Orbán accuses Weber of “donkey” – and offers light to leave the faction
CSU politician Weber had said that no country that adheres to the law should fear the rule of law mechanism and, if necessary, could go to the Court of Justice of the European Communities. “Everyone is counting some kind of donkey. That also applies to Mr. Weber, ”Orbán said. “Hungarians may not be as many as Germans, but we are not stupid or naive.”
Orbán went one step further Sunday and offered Weber a kind of party-going light. Fidesz’s membership in the EPP has been suspended for some time; More recently, there were calls in the EU Parliament group to expel Tamás Deutsch, the head of the Fidesz delegation, because he had brought Weber closer to Nazi ideology. In the letter to Weber, which SPIEGEL has received, Orbán now offers a “new form of cooperation”, similar to the alliance between the EPP and the European Democrats (ED) that existed from 1999 to 2009.
What Orbán intended by this was initially unclear. The EPP-ED alliance was primarily intended to unite the British Conservative Party, which was part of the ED, to the EPP. The exit of the Conservatives from the group in 2009 was, in the opinion of many in the EPP, the first step towards Brexit. So Orbán wants to scare the EPP with the specter of Hungary’s exit from the EU? Perhaps, says an EPP source. Orbán may just want to give the impression that he is in control of the event, and that everyone will be talking about him for a few days.
