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London and Brussels are fighting for a successor to Brexit. If no agreement is reached before the end of the year, relations between the EU and Britain threaten to become difficult and messy.
By Thomas Spickhofen, ARD-Studio London
There is already a first agreement between the European Union and Great Britain: last year’s divorce agreement. On this basis, the UK left the EU on January 31. In the agreement, important details are already laid out on almost 600 pages:
The rights of citizens on the other side are recognized. However, EU citizens who want to continue living and working in the UK will need a residence permit in the future.
Describe the rules by which the cost of divorce is calculated. London will continue to have to deposit money in various EU boats even after the final separation from Brussels. Britain made a commitment to this during its accession to the EU. Experts estimate that it will be the equivalent of about 45,000 million euros in the next 30 years.
Apple of Discord Northern Ireland
Specific agreements have also been made for Northern Ireland to avoid border controls between the British province of Ulster and the Republic of Ireland. Since then, many EU internal market rules and the EU customs union continue to apply in Northern Ireland. All necessary import and export controls must be carried out between Northern Ireland and the British heartland.
However, the new domestic market law that the Johnson administration plans to pass in parliament these days contradicts these agreements. In the event that a trade agreement is not reached, the British government wants to freely determine the rules for imports and exports, as well as state aid.
However, this could lead to different economic rules in Ireland and Northern Ireland, which should be explicitly avoided by the divorce agreement. Therefore, the EU sees the British government’s plan as a violation of international law and has asked them to withdraw this ticket at the end of September.
The no-deal scenario
Last year’s exit agreement provides for a transition period during which everything will remain the same initially. This transition period ends on December 31st. It could have lasted up to two years. But the Boris Johnson government has always categorically ruled out this option. Now, by the end of the year, not only agreements on future trade need to be reached, but also, for example, cooperation in culture and science, as well as data exchange for law enforcement. If a global agreement cannot be reached, there is the threat of a “no-deal scenario” that would have far-reaching consequences.
Because then the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will apply to the exchange of goods between the EU and Great Britain. So, there are tariffs that make the import and export of products more expensive in both directions. Importation of raw materials, free movement of goods and supply chains would be affected. For the auto industry, for example, this would mean that necessary vehicle parts that are made in the EU or Britain would take longer to travel and be more expensive. This also makes the final product more expensive.
Border controls with huge truck jams
Every day, up to 10,000 trucks pass through the British ferry port at Dover. Currently, processing takes an average of two minutes per vehicle. The British government expects that between 50 and 85 per cent of drivers will not have the correct documents in the first months and therefore the checks will take longer. Port operators warn: a two-minute extension would create a 30-kilometer truck jam in front of Dover.
Nobody really knows what will happen at the borders. Under the exit agreement, Northern Ireland continues to apply numerous EU internal market and customs union rules, for example for product standards and state aid for businesses. Checks between the EU and Great Britain should only take place once products have reached the British heartland from Northern Ireland and vice versa. It is unclear whether the British authorities have established the necessary logistics.
Medicines could be in short supply
In the “Common European Aviation Area”, the internal market for air traffic, European airlines can offer routes throughout the EU. If there is no agreement, British Airways could still fly between the island and the mainland, but no longer within the other EU countries. Therefore, EasyJet airline has already founded a subsidiary based in Austria, which will then offer routes between EU countries.
So far the European Medicines Agency, which has just moved from London to Amsterdam, has approved medicines for all EU countries. It is not known how it will proceed if an agreement is not reached. In preparations for a no-deal last year, a special regulation was discussed that should at least allow the transport of essential drugs across the new border. Additionally, the UK government has also asked its pharmaceutical industry to hold stocks for at least six weeks.
Travel and data protection issues
Great Britain is not a member of the Schengen Agreement, so it is necessary to have your passport or identity card when entering the country. If there is no agreement, it must be decided how tourist travel will be approached, for example, if limited tourist visas will be issued.
In Britain, the EU driving license will no longer be valid in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Travelers are advised to obtain an international driving license in due time. It is also recognized in Great Britain.
How to treat the data and how to protect it? This area, which has received little public attention so far, could have the biggest impact, because it refers to the flow of data between EU member states, for example when shopping or banking online. This data exchange has so far only been legally possible on servers within the EU.
Time is running out. Even if the negotiating partners reach an agreement quickly, the EU Parliament and all national parliaments must approve an agreement this year so that it can enter into force on January 1 next year.
