Ethiopia: Europe’s anchor in the Horn of Africa falters

reThe word “war” continues to prevent the eloquent Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, from overlooking the civil war in the north of his country. Rather, it is an “operation to restore constitutional order” to protect the rule of law. The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize may turn the tide: the conflict in the Tigray region, as the British newspaper “The Guardian” aptly put it, is “a war by any recognizable definition”.

The violence has increased too much since the beginning of November. Today, there are enough credible reports to suggest hundreds of deaths, often as a result of ethnically motivated violence. Tens of thousands of refugees have been displaced in connection with fighting between the Ethiopian army and militias affiliated with the once nationally influential insurgent party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Many civilians seek protection in neighboring Sudan, which is still reorganizing after last year’s revolution. In recent days, Ethiopian troops have blocked access roads into Sudan, causing the flow of refugees to slow and, for those blocked, it must feel like a trap has been closed.

The major international effects of the conflict are increasingly evident these days. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, announced in an interview on Tuesday with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen, his “great concern about the selective ethnic violence, the numerous deaths and human rights violations “. This conflict is already “seriously” destabilizing the region, said the EU politician.

Ethiopia, a country with a population of 110 million and one of the most important nations in Africa as a location for the African Union (AU), responded with a slight: “We reject any interference in our internal affairs,” the prime minister’s office responded. Abiy abruptly. towards the EU, with which there is significant economic and development cooperation.

Of course, there can be no doubt about the accuracy of the Mekonnen analysis. In addition to the refugee crisis in Sudan, this mainly affects Eritrea, where rockets from Tigray forces landed. But the effects can also be felt in the most volatile countries on the continent: Ethiopia’s army in Somalia is actually participating in the fight against the Islamist terrorist group al-Shabab.

However, more recently, hundreds of his own soldiers were disarmed there, namely those of Tigrayan descent. Numerous ethnically acceptable fighters were withdrawn by the government and sent to the front lines in Tigray. The soldiers were also ordered to return from the peacekeeping mission in South Sudan. It was said to be too close to the TPLF.

Numerous police officers with roots in Tigray have been released from their duties in Ethiopia. Its people make up six percent of the population, many living in the capital Addis. Currently, many Tigray workers are being laid off from civil jobs for tenuous reasons.

In the last decade, the hope for a continental signaling effect has probably not been associated as closely with any other African country as with Ethiopia. In the G20 initiative “Pacts with Africa” launched by Germany in 2017, Ethiopia is naturally one of the “twelve reform-oriented states”, the aim is to improve conditions for private investments. Celebrated as a reformer, Abiy defended him like no other politician on the continent. It showed impressive growth rates, reduced poverty and built factories at a remarkable rate, and even seemed to open up civil society.

Little of that can be felt these days. The internet and other communication channels in Tigray have been closed for weeks, international journalists are almost exclusively allowed to move within Addis Ababa, and no visas are often issued. William Davison, one of the few independent analysts permanently residing in Ethiopia as a representative of the renowned think tank “Crisis Group”, was deported a few days ago. Initially they told him without any formal reason that he had to leave the country “immediately”. Later, the government announced that his work permit had been revoked for alleged violations of labor law. The “Crisis Group” announced that there was “little doubt” that the deportation was based rather on the “increasing sensitivity of the authorities to views that deviate from their own line.”

It is to be feared that Ethiopia’s role as a bearer of hope has failed in many ways. As quickly as the Abiy dynamic prompted the peace accord with Eritrea, the core elements quickly withdrew again. Many of the released political prisoners were arrested again. And that independent reporting remains a challenge in Ethiopia, even in peacetime, was anticipated a year ago when Abiy did not give a single interview when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded. He wanted to avoid unpleasant questions about the bloody malaise that still prevailed at that time with the Oromo ethnic group. Even the expected liberalization and debureaucratization of the economy did not meet expectations.

Above all, however, the conflict reveals that pronounced federalism based on ethnic lines is not necessarily the expected model path for lasting peace in multi-ethnic states like Ethiopia. This is also bad news for the Congo and Nigeria, where some researchers and politicians saw this as a possible approach for a more stable peace in crisis regions.

It is no longer talked about in northern Ethiopia. Long before the conflict in Tigray, Abiy had tried to secure more power over individual regions for his central government. On Thursday he announced that he had ordered a “final military offensive” in the provincial capital, Mekelle, after an ultimatum to the TPLF leadership expired. “The last peaceful door” closed, wrote on Twitter.

One would like to point out that the war can hardly be described more clearly.