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It is probably not as bad as expected: Federal Economy Minister Altmaier revised the economic forecast upwards to less than 5.8 percent. The recession bottomed out.
The federal government is correcting up its economic forecast for this year. He is pleased to be able to deliver good news, Federal Economy Minister Altmaier said when presenting the figures. Gross domestic product (GDP) will collapse by 5.8 percent due to the crown crisis, Altmaier said. Until now, less than 6.3 percent had been assumed. Altmaier expressed the hope that even an “even slightly better result” could be achieved.
“The recession in the first half of the year was less severe than we feared,” said the economy minister. The rally is happening faster and more dynamically than anyone dared to expect. Altmaier spoke of an exemplary V-shaped development: “The bottom is over.” The half-percent improvement means confidence for the economy as a whole, according to Altmaier.
Thus, the economic depression is only slightly larger than it was in the year of the financial crisis in 2009, when GDP contracted by 5.7 percent. It would remain the worst postwar recession.
Lower by 2021
The government expects economic growth of 4.4 percent by 2021. An increase of 5.2 percent had previously been forecast here. According to Altmaier, this is due, on the one hand, to the fact that part of the growth expected for 2021 will now occur in 2020. This “carry-over effect” is said to be positive. On the other hand, the minister referred to the difficult economic situation in other countries, which would reduce exports. Therefore, it is important that domestic demand has stabilized, Altmaier said.
So far, Europe’s largest economy has weathered the Corona crisis better than many other large industrial nations. Gross domestic product collapsed in the spring by 9.7 percent, more drastically than ever. The situation in France (-13.8 percent), Great Britain (-20.4 percent) and Italy (-12.8 percent) is much worse.
Altmaier: second block can be avoided
Altmaier was convinced that a second blockage could be avoided if important opening measures were not taken and hygiene regulations were observed. Even in times of the crown pandemic, a rebound under these conditions is possible, said the Minister of Economic Affairs. Much has been accomplished. “I dare to predict that we will have reached the pre-crisis level of gross domestic product again in 2022,” he said.
Recently, there have been growing signs of an economic recovery in the second half of the year: the Ifo business climate index, the most important leading indicator for the development of the German economy, last rose for four months in a row. For the first time since the start of the Crown crisis, employment in Germany rose again: in July, almost 44.6 million people residing in Germany were in paid employment, an increase of 64,000 or 0.1 percent. percent compared to the previous month, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
