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reThe Greens should be pleased with the findings for now: Populist attitudes are falling sharply in society as a whole, and nowhere are they as weak as the Greens’ supporters.
However, this match could help regain that mentality. Because the Greens tend to “teach from above,” “there is no interest in building bridges,” sociologist Wolfgang Merkel of the Berlin Science Center (WZB) told reporters on Wednesday.
With their actions and speeches from above, the Greens, according to Merkel, co-author of the 2020 Populism Barometer compiled by the WZB and the Bertelsmann Foundation, lack precisely what has caused the significant decline in attitudes: namely, an inclusive political style. . . “Inclusive” means political action that is not based on “exclusive arrogance and cosmopolitan arrogance,” as the study puts it. Rather, anti-populist action is reliable action that is “socially responsive” to the real questions and needs of citizens.
Merkel misses that political style among the Greens, while according to him and fellow author Robert Vehrkamp of the Bertelsmann Foundation, that style is now mainly cultivated by the ruling CDU / CSU and SPD parties. In addition to the deterrent effects of populist rule abroad, this style is one of the main reasons for the decline of populism in Germany.
The findings are clear. According to the study, which has been conducted regularly since 2017 and this time based on online surveys of 10,000 representatively selected eligible voters in June 2020 and a follow-up survey in August, the proportion of populist citizens is lower than ever in this series of surveys.
Source: WORLD infographic
Source: WORLD infographic
The proportion of populists fell by more than a third from 32.8 percent in 2018 to 20.9 percent. The proportion of people with a completely non-populist attitude increased even more drastically: they made up only 31.4 percent of respondents in 2018, but now they represent almost half of all participants at 47.1 percent.
According to the study, this is a “real trend change in the climate of opinion.” The populists have “returned to the defensive in Germany.”
Populists have three thought patterns
Populism, which exists both on the left and on the right and also in the political center, is defined using three thought patterns or dimensions. It is important that all three dimensions are present at the same time if it is certified that someone has a populist attitude.
the first dimension It is an “anti-establishment” stance, according to which “corrupt elites assert their own interests against the real interests of the pure people,” as the study puts it. This “anti-system” dimension occurs when respondents are “totally” or “more or less” in agreement with a phrase like the following: “The parties only want the votes of the voters, they are not interested in their points of sight “.
the second dimension “Anti-pluralism” can be seen when accepting a statement like “the citizens of Germany basically agree” on “what has to happen politically”. Here a unified popular will is affirmed, which cannot be reconciled with the diversity of opinions of a pluralist democracy.
At third thought pattern “Pro popular sovereignty” is about the approval of the statement, for example, “Politicians in the Bundestag must always follow the will of the citizens.” This does not fit with the freedom of conscience of the deputies and is based and also on an ultimately authoritarian fiction of “the” will of the citizens.
Source: Infographic WORLD / Paul Daniel
The dimensions are specifically recorded by a total of eight statements with which respondents could agree “completely” and “somewhat” or “rather not” and “not at all”. In addition to the phrases mentioned, the statements also include the fact that “citizens often agree”, “but politicians pursue completely different goals.”
Or: “What is called ‘compromise’ in politics is really nothing more than a betrayal of one’s own principles.” According to the study text, according to the study text, “only those who answer the eight statements’ completely ‘or’ rather ‘agree’. On the other hand, those who “disagree” with a statement or “tend to disagree” with at least half of the eight statements are classified as non-populist.
It should also be noted that the underlying definition of populism has to do with attitudes towards pluralistic parliamentary democracy, not with questions of content and politics. In doing so, the authors implicitly request that the otherwise very vague term populism, which is often used as a reproach, be kept out of the dispute over factual issues and that more precise terms be considered if other views are to be rejected.
The fact that only the joint acceptance of the eight statements makes a difference is particularly important when it comes to the phrase that “important issues should not be decided by parliaments, but by referendums.” The authors of the study do not consider the demands of direct democracy addressed as sufficient criteria for populism. “But the demand for a more direct democracy becomes populist when combined with the anti-pluralist fiction of a unified popular will.”
The authors even opine that a constructive handling of demands for more referendums could further weaken populism: “An intelligently considered introduction of direct democratic instruments, also at the federal level, that complement and improve representative procedures would be a piece of anti-populism. democratic, “she writes. This deprives “populists of the possibility of being suspicious of representative institutions and procedures.”
The “negative party identity” of the AfD
The decline of populist tendencies affects the electorate of all parties. The authors calculated average values for the respective party’s clientele on a scale between 3.5 and 6.5 points and found that the value of Union voter populism has fallen 0.6 points compared to 2018 to the value arithmetic of little more than four. . That’s just slightly more than the once again low average of a good four among Green voters. There are also significant declines of 0.5 points in the Left, the SPD and a little more in the FDP. AfD voters are also less populist than they were in 2018.
But the overall decline is likely to have very different consequences at the polls for the respective parties. A “change in voting probability” was also calculated in the event that the affinity for populism in the party in question decreased by a certain value. In this case, the voting possibilities of the Union parties increase by around six percentage points, while they fall by two percentage points on the left and up to four percentage points in the AfD. Therefore, the survey feeds the assumption that the AfD is unlikely to be able to increase its previous election results due to the falling level of populism in the population.
This is covered by another conclusion: nowhere in Germany is so rejected as the AfD. In June, 71 percent of those polled said they thought “very little” about this game. This rejection is almost as great as in March 2017. The fact that the party moved to the Bundestag a few months later has done almost nothing to its reputation among voters.
How dramatic the so-called negative party identity is in the AfD is also clear from the fact that this figure is just a good 40 percent for the second most rejected party, the left. Given that populism is generally on the decline as a strong reason to vote for the AfD, the party may face tough times.
According to the results of the study, the AfD only gains some stability due to the radicalization of its main supporters. According to the authors, 56 percent of AfD voters are “latent or overt right-wing extremists” – 27 percent latent, manifest 29.
The definition of “right-wing extremist” does not correspond to that of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is based on the fact that respondents were also presented with phrases like these: “In the national interest, under certain circumstances a dictatorship is the best form of government”, “Even today, the influence of the Jews is too great” or “Actually, the Germans are inherently superior different peoples.”
The fact that such statements have the full or partial approval of more than half of AfD supporters means that the AfD is moving “even as a voting party deeper into the far-right segment.” “And the more populism gives way and the populist voters of the center return to the established parties,” write Vehrkamp and Merkel, the “more dominant” would be among AfD voters “far-right attitudes.”
AfD is losing approval due to internal disputes
In a current Forsa survey for the RTL / ntv trend barometer, the Union is unchanged at 38 percent. The SPD remains at 14, the Greens at 18 percent, the FDP and the Left at six and eight percent respectively. Only the AfD loses.
