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Most crown breakouts occur at home or in private, reports the RKI. But the database for this is sparse. Because most sources of infection can no longer be determined.
By Patrick Gensing and Andrej Reisin, ARD-faktenfinder Editorial Team
It has only been two weeks since a supposedly “historic” meeting between the federal and state governments decided to take action to slow the spread of the new corona virus. That day, the Robert Koch Institute reported a good 5,000 new infections; the seven-day incidence was 31.5 cases. Nationally, 47 cities / districts had exceeded the value of 50.
After 10 to 14 days, measures such as the curfew and the accommodation ban, which in many countries have long since been repealed, must be reviewed. The balance is devastating: the number of new infections each day is now nearly 15,000 and the seven-day incidence is 87. Most counties have exceeded the incidence cutoff of 50, many even exceed 100, some exceed 200. In addition, the number of Covid-19 cases treated in intensive care doubled in 14 days. The daily death toll is also increasing significantly, to 85 in one day.
Corona pandemic in Germany
| date | New infections | Seven-day incidence | Deceased |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 14th | 5132 | 31.5 | 43 |
| October 28 | 14,964 | 87 | 85 |
Most infections in the private area?
Germany’s Crown map has turned bright red. Now new measures will be introduced, everything points to contact restrictions in the private sector. Because most people got infected in their private lives, it is said over and over again to justify. The basis for this statement is the RKI, which reports in the management report that in most districts “it is a mostly diffuse fact, with numerous clusters related to private celebrations in family and friends.”
Additionally, the RKI lists several areas that contribute to the increased incidence due to “many smaller outbreaks.” These included nursing homes and nursing homes, as well as “outbreaks in hospitals, facilities for asylum seekers and refugees, community facilities, day care centers and schools, various professional settings and in connection with religious events.”
Many sources of infection are unclear
However, the database for such statements is sparse: many health authorities have not been able to track where people have been infected for a long time. In Hamburg, for example, the Senate announced Tuesday that with 300 new infections, the cause could only be determined in 19 cases, less than 10 percent. He was a returnee and 18 cases in the private sector. However, it is not clear where the source of infection identified in the private area was infected.
Statements about sources of infection also only refer to outbreaks, that is, at least two infections that are supposed to be related. But only about a quarter of the total reported cases could be assigned to an outbreak, the RKI writes in its management report.
RKI relativizes expressiveness
If you follow the RKI representation, most outbreaks occur in the home, but the workplace also plays a role. The “leisure” area, which is now supposed to be particularly severely restricted, is far behind. Therefore, places to eat do not play a big role either. Many of the outbreaks found are not specified at all, but are in the “additional” category.
Therefore, the RKI severely limits the informative value of the statistics themselves: information on the infectious environment of outbreaks must be “interpreted with caution”, the assignment “is not always clear”. In some outbreaks, various situations played a role and “it was not always possible to define exactly where the transmission took place.” In some settings, for example in rail traffic, outbreaks can only be determined with difficulty, since in many cases the identity of a contact can no longer be traced later, so such areas could be “underreported”.
Most cases are not considered
Virologist Christian Drosten said in the NDR-Podcastthat for many people it is almost impossible to determine in hindsight where they were infected. This applies to public transportation, but also to situations at work or in restaurants. On the other hand, you remember a family celebration. Other than that, most of the infection sources couldn’t be traced anyway.
This can also be seen in the data on the sources of infection: over the last week, the RKI submission only includes around 8,000 cases, out of around 70,000 new infections recorded. Therefore, there is not a comprehensive database of statements on sources of infection, since the RKI information only refers to outbreaks with at least two cases, of which more and more cannot be recognized and / or assigned.
