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Historical examples of pandemics would show that second waves in the fall and winter can also be stronger. In the case of the new coronavirus, it is quite possible that loosening containment measures will no longer only result in local clusters, but a more extensive distribution with fewer cases. If infection rates rise again, it may be more difficult to manage the situation than in the past few weeks with the backlog of cases, for example in ski areas.
It could also be dangerous if influenza co-infections occur in winter. Such cases already existed and “mostly did not go well,” said Krammer, a researcher at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, where he recently developed a laboratory test for antibodies to the new virus. crown.
He and his team are now on the “very complex issue” of immunity after surviving the disease. Other human coronavirus infections are generally protected for one to three years. One could “assume this is also the case with the new virus,” said Krammer, who noted the lack of data. At Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, about 2,000 Covid patients have been treated at the same time in recent weeks. It had been seen “that most developed neutralizing antibodies”, which in most cases was related to some protection.
The antibody test developed by him and his colleagues also provides information on how strong the immune response is, that is, how many antibodies a person has. This could be very useful in a second wave if more is known about the relationship between antibody titers and protection against infection. According to the information, “one could exclude people from quarantine measures,” Krammer said.
The issue of vaccine development is also particularly important for the future use of SARS-CoV-2. Krammer believes the first vaccine will be available in early 2021. For example, he described an approach with inactivated SARS-CoV-2 pathogens as promising. The first data on this “looks great,” says the virologist. An advantage of this approach is that such vaccines could also be produced by companies in non-high-tech countries, since the virus only has to grow in bioreactors and then be inactivated by UV light, for example, “and that was it. “Krammer said. Clearly, no single company can come close to meeting global needs.
There is a lot of talk, especially in German-speaking countries, about so-called RNA vaccines. Genetic information about the pathogen, the so-called messenger RNA (mRNA), is introduced into the body in modified form through a vaccine. With this genetic material injected, some cells in the body make the desired virus components, which the body’s immune system struggles with. In a way, the body itself produces the vaccine upon which the immune response rises.
In Germany, a first clinical investigation of such an active ingredient is beginning. “We have a tool with which we believe we can guide the immune system very precisely,” CEO of Mainz-based company BioNTech, Ugur Sahin, said on Monday at a press conference organized by the German Media Center for Science (SMC). The mRNA approach is also promising because such vaccines can be produced rapidly in large quantities, their development progresses relatively quickly, and they break down rapidly in the body.
The main reason why there is no approved vaccine in this class is that the technology has only reached a certain level of maturity in recent years. However, vaccine development, and especially approval, is a long and costly task. Now, of course, he is in an exceptional situation where the potential benefits of the approach would outweigh, says Sahin.
With regard to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it has been intensively considered what surface structure might be the target. Like many other approaches, the company chose the surprising peak protein, which is crucial for the pathogen’s penetration into human cells. Since this structure is so important to the virus’ success, it should also not be assumed that dramatic mutations will occur precisely here, which will also make it impossible for the vaccine-trained immune system to defend itself.
Despite all the promises of the technology, Sahin admitted that there are a number of possible residual risks and side effects such as fever, fatigue, headaches, etc. The tests will also pay close attention to changes in the blood that indicate organ damage. That is why there is a need for many study participants who will be followed for a long time, according to the scientist, who did not mention a time horizon in which there could be an approval.
The German Paul Ehrlich Institute made a splash last week with the publicly announced approval of BioNTech’s Phase I / Phase II study of around 200 subjects. Despite the rush and the great attention, “there will be no shortcuts at the expense of tolerance,” said Klaus Cichutek, president of the Paul Ehrlich Institute. The technology is generally considered safe, “hard data is now required in clinical trials.”
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