Coronavirus air traffic: very low risk of infection – economy

Airlines will soon want to fly millions of people around the world again. There’s no need to free the middle seat, they say, other things are more important.

Therefore, there is still hope for the aviation industry: in many European countries, contact restrictions are being relaxed (to a large extent) before the summer holidays begin, and tourism associations are pressing for them to International travel is possible again to avoid the collapse of hotels and tour operators. But is that possible? Return to a narrow plane with hundreds of other passengers without contracting the corona virus?

The industry response is a resounding yes. The industry has been working for weeks on ways to enable large-scale air travel, and claims that the health risks are very manageable. At airports, distance rules would have to be observed through new registration and boarding procedures. However, airlines want to avoid having to keep seats on board free so that passengers don’t sit too close together. They argue that it is not economically feasible to fly half-empty planes through the area, this is not necessary for the protection of health.

The calculation is as follows: According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), if the neighboring seat were to remain free, airlines would only be able to sell 62 percent of all seats. Since all seats are rarely filled on a flight, the actual load factor would be significantly less. However, airlines only make money when they are charged at around 75 percent (measured by the prices they reached before the crisis).

However, IATA assumes that prices against a large supply (airlines want to put tens of thousands of planes back as fast as possible) and that rather weak demand will fall well below the pre-crisis level by 2021. For To have any chance of winning, the machines must fill up even better. Or, according to the industry association, prices would theoretically have to increase by half or more, but fewer passengers would fly later.

Therefore, the problem could be avoided if, from a health protection perspective, there was nothing to prevent all seats from being filled. “There is no point in clearing the middle seat,” says Airbus chief engineer Jean-Brice Dumont. The air in an airplane is completely exchanged every two or three minutes, there are filters that also work with viruses. The air quality corresponds to that of an operating room. The way air circulates on board also helps with protection: it flows from top to bottom and is conducted under the cabin floor to the filters, where the fresh air from around the aircraft is also mixed. It is much more important that passengers and personnel behave properly, especially in masks, and that the aircraft be thoroughly cleaned.

On behalf of IATA, flight doctor David Powell has investigated the risk of catching Covid-19 aboard an aircraft. According to Powell’s published studies to date, there is not a single confirmed case. An airline survey, which accounts for about 14 percent of global air traffic, revealed three suspicious cases in which passengers could have been infected by crew members and four cases in which transfer between pilots could have occurred. However, it is unclear whether on board or later at the hotel. Consequently, the passengers never infected each other.

The European Commission has promised rules in mid-May to support the release of air traffic and hopes that all member states will adhere to them. According to traffic commissioner Adina Vălean, they will involve some degree of “distancing” at airports and on board. The German Transport Ministry has already agreed on another line with local industry representatives: airlines can sell all seats.

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