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The first corona vaccines could soon be approved in the US and Europe. Many rich countries are already securing supplies. Is that why the poor get nothing at first?
By Christian Baars and Oda Lambrecht, NDR
Currently, positive news about possible vaccines against the coronavirus is increasing. Several manufacturers report promising results from their studies. In December, two vaccines could possibly be approved in Europe and the United States: that of the Mainz-based company Biontech and its American partner Pfizer, and the agent of the American company Moderna. Production is already beginning for both of them.
But even if everything continues to run smoothly now, vaccines will be a long way from meeting demand, at least in the first few months. So the question is: who will get the funding first, and who can go empty-handed in the search for vaccines? One thing is clear: with both vaccines, from Biontech / Pfizer and Moderna, some of the richest countries in the world have already obtained large quantities.
Hundreds of millions of cans already sold
According to their own information, Biontech and Pfizer have already sold more than 570 million cans: 200 million to the EU and 100 million to the US alone. Added to this are 100 million that the EU can buy and 500 million that the United States can buy. buy as an option.
EU supply agreements (source: EU Commission)
| Maker | quantity |
|---|---|
| AstraZeneca | 300 Mio + 100 Mio optional |
| Sanofi / GSK | 300 million |
| Janssen (Johnson and Johnson) | 200 Mio + 200 Mio optional |
| Biontech / Pfizer | 200 Mio + 100 Mio optional |
| Curevac | 225 Mio + 180 Mio optional |
| Modern (negotiations in progress) | 80 Mio + 80 Mio optional |
| Novavax (negotiations in progress) | ? |
Additionally, around a dozen of the richest nations, including Canada, Great Britain, Switzerland, Australia, and Japan, as well as some South American countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica, have arranged deliveries with Biontech / Pfizer. A total of around 1.2 billion cans has already been promised, including agreed options. At the same time, companies are currently assuming that they will be able to produce 1.3 billion cans by the end of next year. Most of it is already planned.
It looks similar with Moderna. The company expects to be able to manufacture at least 500 million, possibly up to 1 billion cans per year. At the same time, Moderna has so far committed 100 million cans in the US and has also agreed to an optional delivery of 400 million cans. Together, Canada, Japan, Qatar, Great Britain, Israel and Switzerland have secured another 100 million cans. Currently, the EU is still negotiating with Moderna. This means up to 160 million cans. If the contract is concluded, most of the maximum annual production would already be reserved.
US Supply Agreements (Source: US Department of Health)
| Maker | quantity |
|---|---|
| AstraZeneca | 300 million |
| Novavax | 100 million |
| Biontech / Pfizer | 100 Mio + 500 Mio optional |
| Sanofi / GSK | 100 Mio + 500 Mio optional |
| Janssen (Johnson and Johnson) | 100 Mio + 300 Mio optional |
| Modern | 100 Mio + 400 Mio optional |
Steinmeier asks to share
So for most of the world there is obviously little left, at least initially. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier pointed out in late October that almost half of the world’s population lived in states “that do not have the means to offer themselves to manufacturers as preferred customers.” The result will be “that in the poorest but no less needy countries only a small part of the population can be vaccinated, in the richer countries an incomparably larger part,” Steinmeier said. This week, in a guest post for the Tagesspiegel, he called on Germany and the EU to hand over parts of the contingents they have secured. In addition, all countries should participate in the global Covax initiative as they can.
Covax was founded in April by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Global Vaccination Alliance (GAVI), and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparednes (CEPI). Its aim is to provide vaccines also to the poorest countries. Almost every country in the world has now declared that they support the initiative, but so far the United States and Russia have not.
Many resources in development
However, some experts are quite optimistic that it will be possible to produce enough vaccines for all people around the world in the medium term. The reason for this is that so many different vaccines are being developed. Almost 50 agents are currently being tested in clinical trials and about a dozen have already reached final phase 3.
Jakob Cramer is closely following the progress. The doctor heads the clinical development department of the CEPI organization. And you are confident, especially from the results known so far from the large studies by Biontech / Pfizer and Moderna. Consequently, vaccines appear to prevent more than 90 percent of disease. That’s “very good,” says Cramer, even “much better than any expert would have expected.”
And many other vaccines currently in development could work just as well, says Cramer. Because they are all based on the so-called spike protein. This is a type of stem with which the SARS-CoV-2 virus penetrates human cells. Vaccines contain at least some of this protein or some kind of blueprint. And apparently the immune system responds very well to it.
Other major manufacturers are active
All specialists are now very excited to see more results from large studies from other manufacturers, says Cramer. One of the next candidates could be the drug from the University of Oxford, which is being developed together with the British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca.
AstraZeneca cooperates with various manufacturers around the world to be able to supply large quantities. The Serum Institute of India alone is expected to produce around 1 billion doses by the end of 2021. In total, the group has already entered into production and delivery agreements for more than three billion cans, also with many poorer countries. The Covax initiative will receive 300 million doses.
Other pharmaceutical giants like Johnson & Johnson or GSK and Sanofi, which are jointly developing a vaccine, are also aiming for approval in the first half of 2021. They have also pledged to deliver hundreds of millions of cans to Covax. In principle, Pfizer / Biontech and Moderna also want to support the initiative. However, they have not yet promised specific amounts.
There are also several Chinese and Russian manufacturers, as well as Novavax in the US and Curevac in Germany. They too are expected to be able to produce hundreds of millions of doses, provided their vaccine is approved, of course. According to its own information, Novavax alone wants to be able to produce around two billion cans with the help of collaborations and acquisitions. Therefore, there could be large quantities of vaccines next year.
Money still missing
Currently, manufacturers can submit offers for the Covax initiative. The corresponding tender has started. The goal is to be able to distribute two billion cans. But the range of possible vaccines is not enough to achieve this. Covax also needs the right money. So far, several countries, as well as some private companies and foundations, have pledged almost $ 5 billion. But that is not enough. According to the WHO, at least eleven billion dollars are needed to buy and distribute the two billion cans planned.
On Sunday, the group of major economic powers (G20) declared that they would “spare no effort” to ensure fair access to affordable corona vaccines in the world. In particular, the Covax initiative should be supported. “We are determined to address the remaining financial requirements,” said the final statement from the G20 countries.
