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Germany is falling. Even before prime ministers reconnect with the chancellor, probably on Sunday, perhaps earlier, individual heads of government in their countries are significantly tightening measures in the fight against Corona.
As the situation has worsened in recent days, the shutdown light that has been in place for many weeks is not working. Hundreds die every day; on Thursday, the Robert Koch Institute even reported nearly 600 deaths. Interior Minister Horst Seehofer (CSU) is calling for an absolute and immediate closure at SPIEGEL. This is the “only chance to regain control of the situation.”
But this blockade could take longer than many politicians and citizens now imagine.
Exit restrictions in the state
Germany, which was previously a model country in terms of fighting the crown, is now an example of how not to do so. While debates over the relaxation at Christmas or the New Year’s Eve boom dominated the political agenda, the mood suddenly changed. Almost all prime ministers are calling for a more or less far-reaching shutdown.
Some are already moving forward:
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Saxony Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) closes his country on Monday: most shops will close, as will schools.
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Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) from Baden-Württemberg plans departure restrictions from Saturday, even during the day.
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Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) is pushing for a strict lockdown before Christmas, including curfews.
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Armin Laschet (CDU) from North Rhine-Westphalia advocates for the fastest possible lockdown by 10 January.
This January 10, Sunday of the New Year, plays an implicit or explicit role in almost all these considerations. However, it is questionable whether even the most severe blockage could bring incidence figures back to the target range of around 50 cases by this date.
Modelers demand strict lockdown, as quickly as possible
“Realistically, we cannot announce the end date of January 10 for a closure,” SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach writes to SPIEGEL: It will be considerably more difficult to reach the incidence value of 50 per 100,000 population by this date. than most politicians. I imagined that. And if the tough shutdown doesn’t start until December 21, then January 10 is completely unreal.
Calculations from the Saarland University model indicate that Lauterbach’s assessment might be correct. A team of researchers from Thorsten Lehr University, professor of clinical pharmacy, looked at various scenarios. Scientists are assuming a spring-like closure: Schools are completely shifting to online teaching, with only stores for daily needs and facilities, such as doctor’s visits, remaining open.
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In the second scenario, the closure will also apply from December 14. Here, however, more personal contacts are allowed on Christmas days. In this way, the target incidence could be reached at 50 in mid-January.
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In the third scenario, the closure will not go into effect until December 27; Stores remain open until Christmas Eve. Then an incidence of 50 would be reached at the end of January. According to the calculation, the total number of deaths per crown would more than double from the current 20,000 – to more than 40,000 deaths.
No forecast can accurately predict the future; especially not with a phenomenon as new as Sars-CoV-2. However, the model’s calculations give an idea of which measures could reduce the number of infections and deaths and by how much.
That is why the Saarland scientists are calling for a “complete, hard and fast lockdown.” This is the only way to get the pandemic back under control soon. Only with a timely closure without relaxation during Christmas “thousands of additional deaths from Covid can be avoided,” says professor of pharmacy Lehr.
Projections from physics Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization also suggest that it could be in short supply with the January 10 target. The R value is currently 0.9 for four days. If it drops to 0.7, the number of new infections per week is roughly halved. “Just as we see exponential growth with a value of R above one, the numbers decrease exponentially with a value below one,” says Priesemann.
In spring, until now it was only possible to reduce the infection rate. In mid-April, the value on some days was even 0.68 according to the RKI, on April 15 the weekly average was below 0.8.
Will court curfews be lifted?
Why are the Germans hopeful with a deadline in mid-January that may not come true? It could be because some politicians want to give their citizens perspective. And, of course, legal reasons also play a role.
The amended Federal Infection Protection Act states that all measures announced by state governments are generally limited to four weeks. If they are to be expanded, there must be compelling reasons. Countries therefore have a special burden of justification.
Furthermore, the question arises as to what new measures could be overturned in court. Night curfews, for example, are not included in the new catalog of measures of the Infection Protection Act, and may not exist in front of judges.
Trade demands billions in compensation
One thing is clear: toughening will be costly for taxpayers. The state will have to pump billions more into the economy – to compensate retailers. His lobbyists are already positioning themselves.
Closing the trade in non-food products before Christmas “would not only have fatal economic consequences for our industry, but would also trigger a flood of customers up to and including panic buying,” said a joint letter from the Association’s president and managing director. of German Commerce to Chancellor Helge. Braun (CDU), which is available for SPIEGEL.
The authors state that each closing day will cause a loss of sales of 800 million euros. “It may be for the month of December […] It couldn’t be different than the retail directly affected would have to be compensated for 70 or 75 percent of their sales losses. “And further:” Support should also be provided for the last days of January, otherwise probably there would be serious acceptance problems in the retail trade. “
If this requirement were fulfilled, at least 1.8 billion euros would be collected during three and a half business days from December 27 to 31. In fact, the weeks leading up to Christmas, as well as the time between years, are one of the busiest days for many stores and malls. Compensating for 70 or even 75 percent of lost sales could generate much more profit for many entrepreneurs than if they had opened.
In Austria, for example, in the second lockdown that had just ended, traders received 20, 40 or 60 percent of lost sales, depending on the industry. An Austrian photo dealer was already delighted with his 20 percent. After all, he made a maximum margin of 20 euros on regular sales of a 300-euro camera, he told SPIEGEL. And besides that, the salary of the employees is saved. They had a part-time job: paid by the state.
In Germany, restaurants, hotels, pubs, cultural institutions and freelancers, such as artists, have received state subsidies amounting to 75 percent of average sales since the beginning of November. The Federal Minister of Economy Peter Altmaier (CDU) wants to fundamentally review this system. According to their plans, the aid should be based on specific fixed costs from January.
How and how much German trade is offset is still in the stars. One thing is certain: the longer closures are delayed, the later stores can reopen.
The medicine is bitter, but possibly indispensable.
