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At the Crown Summit it was decided how Christmas can be celebrated. Until then, however, stricter rules apply. Even these small changes can have serious effects.
The federal and state governments have clarified the crucial question for many people: How and, above all, with whom can Christmas be spent and what is allowed on New Years Eve? The result: from December 23 to January 1 inclusive, that is, during Christmas and New Year’s Eve, it should be allowed to meet up to ten people from different households, plus children.
But: Until then, in most federal states only gatherings of five people from just two households are possible. Chancellor Merkel recently appealed: “Any contact that is not made is good.” But five or ten, does that make a difference?
t-online creates the scenarios for you.
One thing is clear: in the nine days of the corona relaxation, the spread of the virus can greatly increase. Because if citizens exhaust the lax holiday regulations, a single person can theoretically meet up to 81 people (with ten people) instead of 36 (with five people) these days. As long as a whole new group meets every day.
Children are not yet included in this calculation. Also, church services, from now on, can take place on a small scale. Due to tradition, many citizens may not want to go without a visit. Another source of infection. That means: the risk of the infection curve rising again at the beginning of the new year is high.
“It should be clear that the recommendation refers to a small group of people and not to meeting ten other people every day,” emphasizes epidemiologist Markus Scholz of the University of Leipzig. And also: “We can all help to minimize the risk. For example, it is better to avoid a visit even if the symptoms are mild. That is not rude, it serves to protect family members.”
The worst case scenario: one person meets nine others out of nine different households. These nine people are reunited with nine other people. This would increase the contact circle from 9 to 81. If this continues, theoretically up to 729 people would be affected at the third level. You can see a clear explanation of this effect in the video here..
Very relevant difference
If the rule that only five people from different households are allowed to meet is applied, the chains of contacts are still significantly smaller, even if they continue exponentially. In view of the devastating consequences of a corona infection, the difference is very significant.
Example of theoretical calculation: if a person only meets four more and they in turn know four more people from different households, that means 16 contacts. Calculated on three levels of contact, that is, 64 people, and therefore 665 fewer contacts than in a national meeting of ten people.
Every contact has an impact
Both calculation examples are, of course, hypothetical. However, they make clear why each individual contact may have less of an impact in the event of a corona infection.
Epidemiologist Scholz warns: “Unfortunately, the pandemic does not take Christmas into account. That is why infections can be expected to increase again if the aforementioned recommendations are not implemented consistently.”
