[ad_1]
DThe third wave can no longer be discussed. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 13,435 new infections Wednesday morning, about 4,000 more than a week ago. The national incidence rises to 86.2 registered infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the last seven days; Four weeks ago it was 57. The R value has been continuously above 1 since the beginning of March, so on average one person is infected with more than another. person in. In all federal states, more people are re-infected than in February.
The grim predictions about the effect of the mutant B.1.1.7, about which many citizens weary of the lockdown were skeptical only a few weeks ago, are coming true. As early as February, intensive care physicians warned of the imminent rise due to the mutation.
The seven-day incidence has recently stagnated in many federal states or increased only slightly. During this time, the British mutant accounted for about 50 percent of new infections. According to the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, it now dominates with three-quarters of all infections. The effect: In a weekly comparison, the total incidence increased 21 percent according to RKI’s status report on Tuesday.
At the same time, mutants and vaccines change known infection patterns. While nursing homes and nursing homes were once considered hotspots, they are now more and more day centers. According to the RKI, the only group that continues to decline is those over the age of 85, many of whom are now fully vaccinated. In all other age groups, the number of new infections is increasing again. Currently, the highest incidence is in people 15 to 44 years old, but the numbers are increasing more among people 0 to 14 years old. While the youngest have so far played a minor role in the statistics, the seven-day incidence has doubled for those aged 0-14 in the last four weeks.
“Currently, the role of children and adolescents in the spread of Sars-CoV-2 appears to be changing,” writes the RKI. Outbreaks in day care centers are increasing very rapidly and, despite the limited emergency operation that was still in place in many federal states at the point of the survey, they are well above year-end values when facilities were still in place. they were fully open. “A similar development is indicated by a lag (due to the recent opening) of schools,” warns the RKI, which attributes the development to the spread of more easily transferable and worrying variants, in particular B.1.1.7.
Source: WORLD Infographic
On Friday night, the RKI released a dismal forecast, such as B.1.1.7. could determine the infection rate in Germany in the coming weeks. Consequently, a third wave “hidden” for weeks is gaining ground. Since the beginning of the year, the weekly number of B.1.1.7 cases has grown very uniformly, doubling every twelve days, according to the report.
Intensive care doctors warned in February
This exponentially increasing trend only overlapped for weeks with decreasing numbers for the other virus variants. A significantly larger increase in the number of infections can be expected from now on. Fall numbers are expected at Easter above the Christmas level. So far, the RKI has been correct with its forecast.
The German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI) had designed this scenario long before. Since February 25, it has published a forecasting model that urgently warns against the premature relaxation of pandemic measures. In view of the slow start of vaccination and the increasing spread of B.1.1.7, there is again a threat of “peak loads of around 4,000 Covid-19 patients in intensive care units,” it says. This prognosis, which turns three weeks today, has also been fulfilled so far: meanwhile, the downward trend in the occupancy of intensive care units by patients with corona has stopped, and the figures have returned to increase for a few days.
For a long time there was skepticism about such predictions among the population, as many warnings in the past had proven to be unfounded. A year ago, at the beginning of the pandemic, Covid-19 was said to have no seasonality like the flu. Then spring came and the great wave of infections did not occur.
This was followed by warnings about vacationers that would drive the emergence of the virus. The increase in new infections remained manageable. At the end of the summer, warnings were given about the second wave in the fall. This wave came, and violently, but months later than expected. It was later said that the winter slides and Christmas visitors would propel the second wave immeasurably, but the hard blocking had an effect. Fewer and fewer people were infected.
When the first reports of the dangers posed by the most contagious mutant B1.1.7. made the rounds in Britain at the end of the year, so many turned them down. Wait, he told himself. After all, they will be vaccinated now and spring is coming soon. Politics behaved similarly, fueling hope at the latest federal-state summit with a step-by-step plan to gradually loosen the lockdown. But vaccines and spring are too late, it seems, to prevent a third wave.
Incidence of 200 in April?
In its current forecast on Monday, DIVI expects an incidence of 100 nationwide in late March and a value of 200 in early April through mid-April. Only when strict lockdown measures take effect again from 100, intensive care units will still be exposed to the same preventable strain as in early January, medical professionals warn. At that time, there were more than 5700 corona patients in intensive care units in Germany. If tougher measures only take effect after an incidence of 200, that peak utilization can again be expected despite vaccinations in the spring.
Since B.1.1.7 cannot be addressed with blocking measures alone, only rapid vaccination against Covid-19 can avoid a “critical load”. In the simulation, in the worst vaccination scenario with a late tightening of the current blocking measures (from an incidence of 200 or more), the peak occupancy of beds in intensive care will not be reached until May 1, and around 5,000 people in critical condition. then patients are expected. In the best possible vaccination scenario and with tougher confinement measures starting at an incidence of 100, the maximum could already be reached in early April with 3,000 intensive care beds occupied.
Drosten is afraid of the age group of 50
And what does Christian Drosten predict for the next few weeks? “We will have a situation shortly after Easter like Christmas,” he said on his NDR podcast episode released Tuesday. The situation will become “drastically more difficult” due to the mutant. Drosten fears it is particularly “risky” for groups 50 and older who have not yet been vaccinated, who are at higher risk of developing serious disease.
Because there is also bad news: B.1.1.7 is now considered not only transferable, but also dangerous. New studies provided additional evidence that the variant is more deadly, Drosten cautioned. Even if more and more risk groups are vaccinated, the health system is likely to face yet another stress test.
