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Status: 11.02.2021 11:42 am
New figures suggest an increasing spread of the B.1.1.7 virus mutation. According to the RKI, evidence of mutations was confirmed in twelve percent of the samples tested. However, the data could be biased.
By Patrick Gensing, tagesschau.de
According to the most recent information from the Robert Koch Institute, the proportion of samples examined in which evidence of virus mutations was found has doubled in the last week. During the fourth calendar week, the RKI announced that mutations had been discovered in five percent of the corona cases sequenced, most of which were due to “British virus” B.1.1.7. In the first week of February the proportion rose to twelve percent.
In the fourth calendar week 30,348 tests were examined, in 1452 references to B.1.1.7 were found, in another 93 to the “South African variant” B.1.351.
In the fifth calendar week, 23,530 test results were sequenced; References to B.1.1.7 were found in 2642 cases and in 190 more cases to B.1.351.
Possible distortion
However, the RKI warns of a bias in the data because laboratories in Germany are not yet involved in sequencing. Additionally, test results that were already classified as suspect with respect to mutations could have been analyzed. Therefore, the percentage of confirmed cases in these samples is presumably higher than it actually is.
The RKI was able to determine how high the distortion could be at the request of tagesschau.de not estimate. With the results of an “ad hoc survey” currently underway, it will be possible to say more accurately about the trend.
R value greater than one, despite blockages
Mutations of the virus have spread widely in other countries in recent weeks. They are considered more contagious and therefore can spread more quickly. Denmark, for example, expects variant B.1.1.7 to account for 80 percent of all new infections in early March.
The responsible Danish institute also calculated the extent of the mutation: while the R-value in the Scandinavian country is below one due to the drastic protection measures, experts currently estimate the R-value of the “British variant” at around 1, 14 That means: Despite the block, B.1.1.7 can be extended further. The RKI shared at the request of tagesschau.de with that no such estimate has yet been made for Germany, but one has “of course one eye on the matter.”
