Corona pandemic: how Italy is avoiding the second wave

PAs feared, the second corona wave reached southern Europe just before autumn: France and Spain report surprisingly high numbers of infections every day and already have to impose the first restrictions on public life. The government of Portugal is also looking for a strategy on how to counter the crown numbers, which are increasing again.

In only one country, the situation is remarkably calm: in Italy, of all places, where the coronavirus was unleashed first and among the most violent, the corona situation is relatively well controlled.

The figures show how much Italy differs now from its southern European neighbors: while Portugal has been reporting around 65 new corona cases per million inhabitants every day for a week, in France there have recently been more than 180 new cases. cases per day and in Spain even more. 230. Italy, on the other hand, with around 27 new cases, is only slightly higher than Germany, where recently 22 new daily infections per million inhabitants were reported. So how does Italy manage to control the second wave?

For Andrea Crisanti, a virologist at the University of Padua, the answer is clear: “Active monitoring by the government has meant that the corona virus is now spreading more slowly in us than in France and Spain,” he explains to WELT by phone. . By that she means: Italy tests better and smarter than its neighboring countries.

That Crisanti praises the current Italian government testing policy is not surprising, because it is based on his idea. At the beginning of the pandemic, he and his research team, and in collaboration with the regional government of Veneto, developed the “Vò model”. It is named after the small town in northern Italy, which controlled the coronavirus shortly after its outbreak and made international news.

The model provides extensive testing and isolation in the vicinity of a crown bud. “If a person tests positive for the coronavirus, it is not enough to use the ‘contact tracing’ method,” says Cirsanti. This involves informing the last contact of the infected person about the infection and asking them to isolate themselves and wait to see if they experience symptoms. According to the expert, “it is more effective to carry out immediate and exhaustive tests on all the people around the infected person. This includes family and friends, as well as colleagues and neighbors. “

This is the only way to identify the “extremely high number” of asymptomatic patients and prevent them from spreading the disease. “The epidemic can only be eradicated if all cases are tracked,” he says emphatically.

Italy has increased to 100,000 tests a day

The figures show that Crisanti is right: Italy has increased its testing capacity since March from 3,000 to 4,000 tests to 100,000 tests per day. And the country is also taking advantage of these opportunities: for example, 90,185 tests were carried out on Tuesday that identified 1,648 new infections.

Compared with Spain and France, it is noted that in Italy a lower proportion of corona tests are positive. According to the “Our World in Data” website, which collects data from government sources and makes it comparable, only 2.7 percent of tests in Italy were positive on September 20, compared to six percent in France. , more than double. In Spain, even 11.3 percent of the tests were positive. With these numbers, it is clear that the virus is currently less common in the population of Italy than in Spain or France.

For comparison: in Germany, 1.1 percent of tests were positive on the same day. The fact that Italy’s corona-positive test rate is as low as Germany’s has to do with the fact that all returnees from risk areas are also tested there upon entry. The Italian government has always established the danger areas on a large scale and has declared that not only individual regions but entire countries are at risk.

The tests also identify many carriers of the virus who do not show any symptoms. Crisanti does not want to accept the objection that is common in Germany that testing capabilities cannot be exhausted to such an extent in the long term: “So we have to invest heavily in testing capabilities. There is no other way.”

When there was a backlog of cases on the popular holiday island of Sardinia in mid-August, the Italian leadership responded by installing a testing center in the island’s port. At the same time, he closed all nightclubs in the country and also forced to wear a mask outdoors from 6 pm to 6 am, where there were crowds of people. Due to the declared state of emergency, Rome can rule by decree until October 15 and implement such measures particularly quickly and consistently.

The success that Italy is having now is also based on the months of harsh blockade that the country has suffered. Schools were closed for longer and the curfew was lifted more slowly and more carefully than in neighboring countries. To this day, the nocturnal urban landscape of large Italian cities is characterized by police officers who urge people to keep sufficient distance in popular squares and to wear their masks.

Without mask in front of the Trevi Fountain: € 400 fine

Those who do not meet the requirements can be punished with severe penalties: according to media reports, police officers sentenced a man to a fine of 400 euros last week because he refused to wear mouth and nasal protection in front of the famous Fontana di Trevi.

But it does not usually go that far, since the acceptance of the precautionary measures of the Crown in the Italian population remains very high. According to a poll by opinion research institute Demos earlier in the month, 79 percent of respondents said they did not think the measures were too strict and would like to see them followed for a long time.

According to Crisanti, the behavior of the population is partly responsible for the success of the Italian crown’s management: “The fact that the population still largely adheres to precautionary measures helps to keep the contagion curve flat.” Also the prolonged blockade and the slow one According to Crisanti, finishing has positive effects. But the good performance of Italy against Spain and France can only be explained in combination with the test strategy.