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Crown: R Value Below 1.0 – Trend Approaching Now?
In recent days, the R-value has fallen below 1.0. But that alone doesn’t mean there is a positive corona trend.
Video graph: R-value provides information on infection rate
The basic reproduction number R0 indicates how many people are infected on average by one infectious person. If the value is less than one, the number of infected people decreases and the epidemic stops.
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Sedan.
- Public life in Germany was partially closed, but the number of corona cases is still at a high level
- Despite partial blocks in Germany, the number of corona cases remains high
- However, the number of views has once again dropped below 1.
- Is a crown trend reversal emerging here?
- We show what the current numbers mean and what is the current situation of the crown in Germany
Is that the first hope on the horizon? I reported this on Tuesday Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for the first time in weeks R value below the critical level of 1.0. That means: Exponential growth takes a break, ten infected people infect fewer than ten others.
If a trend were to develop out of this, it would be a first hit for the toughest. Crown measurements the last days. But the R-value is not the only factor that the Chancellor and the country’s leaders look at when deciding on November 16 whether the current Blocking rules enough. What factors are important now?
1. Corona pandemic: this is what the R value says
The R value: The reproduction number gives hope. According to RKI’s management report on Friday, the R-value in Germany was 0.9 for the fourth time in a row below the critical level of 1.0. On Thursday it was even 0.79. It is important to know: the R value does not reflect the current infection rate, but the situation of a week and a half ago.
Since there have been significant restrictions again in most federal states since mid-October, for example on celebrations and events, it is quite possible that this is already reflected in the R-value. Risk Management (BfR) had shown that respondents were more cautious last week than two weeks earlier.
The seven-day R, which is less subject to daily fluctuations, was, according to RKI estimates, still just below Friday’s breakthrough mark at 0.99. It is not yet clear whether the low R values of the past few days are a stable trend or just a short-term fluctuation. At the beginning of the week, RKI Vice President Lars Schaade stated that the goal should be to reduce the number of views to at least 0.7 to get into a controllable situation.
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2. That says the number of new infections
The number of new infections: Still no relief here. On Friday, the number of new reported infections rose to a new record with more than 21,500 cases. “Currently, a growing acceleration of transmissions is observed in the population in Germany,” he said at the beginning of the week in the RKI management report.
Even if the R-value falls, the large number of people currently infected continues to cause many people to become infected. The number of new infections reported is only part of the truth: Since testing labs are fully utilized and doctors are only supposed to test people with clear symptoms, the currently reported test results only represent one infection process section.
Side effect: By restricting testing to symptomatic cases, the proportion of positive tests in the total number of tests has risen to more than seven percent, according to the RKI. Also read: Jens Spahn is back, with disturbing numbers
Crown – More information on the topic
3. That says the seven-day incidence
The seven-day incidence: For Angela Merkel, the number 50 is the decisive mark in the fight against Corona: the chancellor assumes that health authorities can trace the contacts of those infected in seven days from a maximum of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants and regain control.
Others are more cautious, seeing an imminent loss of control with an incidence of 35 cases. In any case, there is still a long way to go: during the last seven days, the national value was more than 128 cases. About four weeks ago it was only 18.6.
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4. So says the age distribution
Age distribution: According to the RKI, diseases are now on the rise again among older people. “Since these often have a severe course due to COVID-19, the number of severe cases and deaths is also increasing.” Worrying: After the virus was primarily shown to returning travelers in the summer and more often after parties and large celebrations, now too The RKI warns that more COVID-19-related outbreaks have been reported in elderly and nursing homes. seniors.
Overall, the number of Covid 19 cases treated in intensive care has more than doubled in the past two weeks, from around 1,100 patients to more than 2,700 patients. As long as it is not possible to at least stop this trend, it is unlikely that crown measures will be relaxed.
5. How does the weather influence the trend of the crown?
Time: Sars-CoV-2 is transmitted with greater intensity in the cold season. This time, therefore, it may take much longer than in the spring for the partial lockdown to take effect. This is not just because more people are now gathering indoors rather than outside, where the risk of infection is often markedly lower.
Many properties of the virus favor winter spread: Typical winter viruses, which also include Sars-Cov-2, would likely have a higher survivability in dry air, says Thomas Deitmer, secretary general of the German Society for Otolaryngology, Head and Neck . and neck surgery. “That is why the grandmothers warned against dry air to warm up.”
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