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Investigator calls for a strict lockdown for two weeks
Göttingen physicist Viola Priesemann sees little chance that the currently applicable contact restrictions will lead to a decisive decrease in the number of wreath infections by Christmas. “The so-called shutdown light was worth trying, but that wasn’t enough,” Priesemann said in an interview with the Evangelical Press Service. At least it made sure the number of new infections leveled off at a high level. “But the number of cases can only be significantly reduced with a constant two to three week lockdown.”
Priesemann still sees potential for restrictions, especially in schools and in the world of work. Whenever possible, people should constantly work from the home office. Also, at least older students should switch to homeschooling. The leader of the research group of the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen emphasized that further restrictions are also possible in retail, private contacts and adult education. “We have to turn all the screws a little more.”
The goal should be to use the short but effective closure to achieve a seven-day incidence value of 50 or less per 100,000 population. For this, the number of reproductions must be 0.7. So mathematically, ten people would only infect seven more. If the number of cases were reduced, this goal would have to be clearly communicated so that citizens would accept the harsh measures, demanded Priesemann, who and his team are making model calculations for the course of the corona pandemic.
After about two to three weeks, health authorities in most counties would have the infection process under control again and could trace and test contacts with infected people. “Then the restrictions could be relaxed significantly.” The scientist referred to Australia, Ireland and Israel, as well as many Asian countries. After tight contact restrictions, he would now have the pandemic under control. Social life almost normalized there.
According to Priesemann’s calculations, in Germany, under the conditions of the so-called blocking light, it would not make sense to maintain the above restrictions, for example in culture, in hotels and restaurants. “These measures are fading. Now it is an all or nothing question. If we don’t tighten the screw steadily, the number of boxes will probably not decrease. So you have to ask yourself how long you want to maintain the current restrictions. “
The physicist also advocated changing the testing strategy and testing entire groups, such as school classes, with a single PCR test. “Just put all the tests in a tube and have them run in the lab.” This would save testing equipment and reduce the workload in laboratories. If the test is positive, certain people may be retested if necessary. “But the quarantine would apply to the entire group anyway.”
