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As a department head of a government agency, Anders Tegnell was hardly known even in his Swedish homeland six months ago. The 64-year-old doctor with the title of “State Epidemiologist” is now so famous that every word he says is listened to very carefully.
Tegnell is the man who, together with his colleagues, determines the Swedish strategy in the fight against the coronavirus. In spring, at the height of the pandemic, the public health authority decided not to close. The government followed him.
The Swedish special route has caused a sensation around the world. Advocates see the current infection figures as confirmation that he was correct.
After the cases of Covid-19 registered in Sweden were for a long time more than in neighboring countries Denmark, Finland and Norway, the figures have been converging since mid-August. The Danes are currently experiencing a second wave with a sharp curve. Germany has had roughly the same level of infection as Sweden in recent days.
A brutal wave of deaths from Covid-19
However, the largest nation in Scandinavia still has a serious flaw. In the months of comparatively large freedom, Sweden went through a brutal wave of deaths from Covid 19, and the virus spread almost uncontrollably in many nursing homes. The death rate per Swedish krone is around ten times higher than in Norway and Finland and around five times higher than in Denmark and Germany.
State epidemiologist Tegnell has long admitted that serious mistakes were made in caring for the elderly. For him, however, there is no great concession, because his authority has no direct responsibility for what has happened in the homes. Tegnell believes it is unlikely that a blockade in Sweden would have resulted in fewer deaths, he has said this several times.
The numbers challenge Tegnell’s epidemiological approach
However, the grim statistics are gnawing at him. Again and again he is presented with the numbers that call into question his entire epidemiological approach. Now he has found a new exculpatory explanation for the high number of victims. But is it convincing?
Citing a new scientific report, Tegnell now said that last year’s mild flu season was largely the cause of many corona deaths. In Sweden, the usual wave of illness has recently been significantly weaker than in neighboring countries, he said in an interview with “Dagens Nyheter”, the largest Swedish newspaper: “There is a strong connection between low excess mortality from influenza and the high excess mortality from Covid-19. “
According to the epidemiologist, this proportion explains, at least in part, the high mortality rates in Great Britain and Belgium. In both countries, relatively few people have recently died of the flu.
With the scientist’s cool gaze at risk groups, the elderly and the previously ill, Tegnell could have reached a relevant point. His argument, formulated a little more harshly, is this: If you have just been saved from the flu, the coronavirus will take you to the grave.
According to an investigation by the online news portal “The Local Sweden”, the study, referred to by the Swedish state epidemiologist, does not yet have any scientific conclusions, as it has not yet been subjected to a “peer review” by other experts. At the point of the document on the connection between flu and corona, three Twitter accounts operated by bloggers are cited as sources: @Effects, @FatEmperor and @HaraldofW. That doesn’t seem very reliable, but the information may still be correct.
Colleagues from Norway and Finland are not convinced
The question remains whether more people died from the flu in neighboring countries than in Sweden.
After reading Tegnell’s interview, his colleagues from Norway and Finland said in “Dagens Nyheter” that they are both not convinced. Frode Forland, Norwegian director of infection control, says: “From what we can see, it is not the flu that makes the big difference between Sweden and Norway.” It is “easy to believe”, but it is not an explanation.
The latest flu epidemic was actually stronger in his country than in neighboring Sweden, Forland said. “But we cannot see that we have had particularly high mortality rates from influenza in Norway in recent years.” There should have been an even greater number of easy victims for the new virus, if Tegnell was right. But it did not exist.
Successes of the Finnish blockade
Mika Salminen, director of the Finnish Institute for Health and Social Affairs, believes that a connection between influenza and corona mortality is at least possible. “In part” this could explain the Swedish development. “But I don’t think the difference between Finland and Sweden is based on that.”
Salminen is convinced that the main reason lies in the Finnish blockade: “It had a greater effect than we could have dreamed of.” He just hoped to slow the spread of the virus. “In fact, the epidemic was almost completely stopped.”
There were almost no new cases in Finland during the summer, now the numbers are increasing. The country’s authorities are concerned and are reacting to local groups, for example with temporary school closings. However, in a European comparison, the Finnish infection rate is still at a low level, and one-third below the Swedish rate.
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