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Every day there is bad news: since the end of September, the number of people in Germany who are infected with the corona virus has increased again. Today, Saturday, German health authorities reported 4,721 new corona infections, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). This means that Germany is still a long way from spring infection rates of more than 6,500 people per day, but the figures show a clear upward trend.
But not everything is like the beginning of the pandemic, and that gives hope. One decisive variable has dramatically evolved for the better: Despite the high infection rate, more people in Germany are now recovering from Covid-19. Currently, around 15 people die from Covid-19 in Germany every day, with more than 4,700 new infections. In April there were around 300 deaths on some days, with a new infection of just over 3,500 people per day.
The Robert Koch Institute also reported in its daily reports that the proportion of deaths from Covid-19 is currently continuously below one percent and has therefore significantly decreased compared to the number of infections in the spring.
Medical professionals can only speculate on the causes. They have different explanations, but they all agree on one thing: no one assumes that the coronavirus has become harmless. The Robert Koch Institute also considers a change in the virus unlikely to lead to a milder course of the disease.
In June, statements by Italian doctor Alberto Zangrillo from Milan caused the feeling that the virus was becoming less dangerous and less likely to be fatal. Even then, international infectious agents and the World Health Organization (WHO) contradicted it.
RKI scientists, however, explain the lower death rate by the fact that younger people today are more likely to get sick. They are considered to be the cause of the current explosion in the number of infections, but generally only have mild symptoms of Covid-19. So far there have only been two deaths of under-20s in Germany; 85 percent of all deaths were people older than 70 years.
The RKI also expects the curve with deaths to only increase after a while. Severe disease progressions only become visible after a while. “The medical history with possible death is usually very long,” according to the RKI.
Less viral load means fewer deaths
But even regardless of the statistics, doctors have found in recent weeks and months that Covid 19 patients are less ill than in March and April. This assumption is confirmed by a study by Dr. Said El Zein of Wayne State University in Detroit. Between March and June, El Zein took more than 700 smears from Covid-19 patients at the Detroit hospital and checked their viral load. After a few weeks, he was able to distinguish a clear trend: more and more samples showed a lower concentration of virus.
“Everything points to a connection between the initial viral load and the mortality rate,” El Zeihn said. The author of the study assumes that distance and the use of a mask, that is, the greater caution of people, has led to a lower dose of virus. Because the fewer viruses that enter the throat and, ultimately, the lungs, the milder the symptoms of the infected person.
This is also confirmed by Monica Gandhi, Ph.D. in infectious diseases at the University of California, San Francisco. By wearing masks, the body would absorb fewer coronavirus particles, making it easier for the immune system to deal with the disease.
However, there is no consensus in the research. One still puzzles. Some doctors believe, for example, that the first wave has already washed away the weakest patients. But some also blame the best treatment methods for this – many hospitals have learned something new. Pulmonologists report the correct timing of ventilation, which drugs help in which phase of the disease, and that attention is now being paid to thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.
Falling death rates is a global trend
The number of new infections and deaths also differs around the world. However, in some countries, the official number of deaths from corona is consistently too low. This happens, for example, if the statistics only include dead people who had previously tested positive for the virus and in other cases autopsies are not performed.
In terms of absolute death rates, the proportion of deaths from all previously reported infections in a country, Italy, and Mexico are still leading the way, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The United States is 2.8 percent ahead of Germany, which is in the middle with an overall death rate of three percent.
Regardless, it should never be too early to wait for Corona. In Germany, the number of Covid 19 patients in intensive care units is increasing again. More recently, according to the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), 487 people were in intensive care, 239 of them need ventilation. There haven’t been that many since June.
According to the RKI, about 20 percent of all Covid 19 patients were hospitalized in the spring, and between five and six percent in recent weeks.
