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Researchers have another theory as to why the variant of the coronavirus with the abbreviation B.1.1.7 is spreading faster. Consequently, infection with the mutant takes longer, and this probably also increases the time that infected people can transmit the virus to other people. The assumption is important because the variant is also spreading in Germany and the number of infections could rise again.
In fact, the number of infections has decreased much more slowly over about a week and the curve appears to be reaching a plateau. The seven-day incidence across the country has even increased slightly to 61 today. Experts have long been warning that the number of infections would increase with the spread of the contagious variant of the virus.
Whether this trend will play out remains to be seen. Perhaps there could be certainty over the course of the week, Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) said at a news conference last week. (You can read a detailed analysis of the current infection process here.)
Two clear arguments in particular convince researchers that the new variant is more contagious:
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She dominates almost the entire infection process in a short time. While the number of cases in Germany has recently declined overall, the proportion of coronavirus mutants has almost doubled every week.
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If the variant propagates in a phase where less stringent corona measures are applied, the number of infections increases rapidly. This was particularly evident in Great Britain, where the variant was first detected, and in Portugal. Portugal now has the highest incidence in the world and the health system is threatened by collapse. The country asked for help internationally and the Bundeswehr sent doctors and nurses to Portugal.
The percentage of mutants in Bavaria is particularly high
One thing is for sure: the variant is also spreading rapidly in Germany. Last week, 22 percent of the samples tested in Germany showed the typical genetic changes of B.1.1.7. The Hof, Wunsiedel, and Tirschenreuth regions of northeastern Bavaria reported that new mutants accounted for 40-70 percent of positive tests. In the last week of January, according to random samples, its share across the country was just 5.6 percent.
How much more contagious exactly the British virus variant is (scientific assessment is in the 30 to 60 percent range) has a decisive impact on the progress of the pandemic. A calculation model performed by SPIEGEL shows how the total number of new reported infections could develop.
It is not unusual for individual variants to prevail. However, B.1.1.7 is spreading rapidly around the world. A clear indication that it must have an advantage over other variants. Researchers have several possible explanations.
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Some of the genetic changes affect the so-called spike protein, which the virus uses to attach itself to cells. They can only breed there. These changes could be Making the virus easier to infect cells.
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Mutations could cause more viruses spread. The so-called viral load is an indication of how contagious a person is. Because the more viruses frolic in the throat or nose of an infected person, the more they are released by coughing, sneezing, talking, or breathing. This also increases the chance that individual viruses will get into a new host and spread there as well.
An analysis by American scientists at several elite American universities, including Yale and Harvard, suggests another possible explanation. For the analysis, the researchers examined 65 infected people every day using a PCR test. This made it possible to accurately document how the infection was developing.
B.1.1.7 infection lasted an average of five more days
Consequently, the infection with the B.1.1.7 variant lasted an average of five more days, that is, a little more than 13 days. Infections with other variants of the virus subsided after about eight days. Prolonged infection could mean that those affected can transmit the virus for a longer period of time, the researchers suspect. However, at the peak of infection, the samples contained a similarly high proportion of virus to other types of virus. This contradicts the theory that mutations could increase viral load.
However, the results are only preliminary, the scientists emphasized. Only seven of the 65 infected people examined were infected with the B.1.1.7 variant. And the sample as a whole was not representative either. The 65 test people worked for the US professional basketball league NBA, including players, but also employees in stadiums. 90 percent of them were men.
Extend the quarantine?
If the results are confirmed in further studies, the researchers warn, a 10-day quarantine period for the new variant might not be enough to prevent infections as much as possible. Germany has already adjusted the guideline for suspected cases due to the variant spread of the virus.
Anyone who has had contact with an infected person must be quarantined at home for 14 days. Calculations are made from the day of contact. The option to end the quarantine after ten days in the event of a negative PCR test no longer exists. People living with someone with Covid 19 should limit their contacts for as long as possible for 20 days.
Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder warned on Monday of a possible third wave with a view to the spread of the virus variant. The pandemic had arrived at a very sensitive and difficult phase, amid hopes of relief and concerns about the mutations, Söder told a meeting of the CSU board of directors.
The effectiveness of the above measures to protect against infection decreased. “It is stagnating and in some federal states the incidence is increasing again,” Söder said. Therefore, there is a risk that in three or four weeks Germany will face challenges similar to those of last December.
Montgomery warns of greater relaxation
The current advantage is that the variant is spreading during the blockade nationwide. Countries like Great Britain and Ireland have shown that strict measures can also keep the new variant in check. Denmark had also extended strict restrictions as a precautionary measure due to the rapidly expanding variant.
Now, schools and kindergartens are reopening in many parts of Germany. Further relaxation is discussed. Chancellor Angela Merkel also spoke in favor of a cautious easing strategy.
The president of the World Medical Association, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, urgently warned against further relaxation. “Anyone who talks about relaxation in times of rising R-values is acting absolutely irresponsible,” the doctor told the newspapers of the Funke media group. »The incidence value shows where we are currently. The R value shows where we are going. A value well above 1.0 threatens exponential growth again, and that’s exactly the case now. “
