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Virologist Christian Drosten made a statement in a tweet about the new variant of the corona virus, which could be significantly more contagious than previous lines.
“Unfortunately, that doesn’t look good,” wrote Drosten, referring to a British government think tank (NERVTAG). This had released more data on the new line of the virus on Monday night.
“A novel variant was identified and spread rapidly in Britain,” the expert group writes in their abstract. Consequently, the new coronavirus line has increased transferability “with a high degree of certainty.” According to experts, further characterization studies are still underway.
According to the new evaluations, the new virus variant could increase the R-value, that is, the number of other people infected by an infected person, from a good 0.5 to a good 0.7. That may seem small, but with a weekly average of around 25,000 new infections per day, as is currently the case in Germany, it would mean around 15,000 additional infected people per stage of infection (read more here).
However, Drosten wrote that it was “positive” that cases with the mutant only increased in areas where the overall incidence was high or increasing. “Contact reduction also works against the spread of the mutant.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) had recently announced that the new virus line was not yet out of control. “Even if the virus spreads a little more efficiently, it can be stopped,” said WHO director of medical emergencies Michael Ryan.
On Monday an increase in the R-value from 0.4 to 0.9 was discussed. Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson said over the weekend that the mutation was “up to 70 percent more contagious” than the original variant of the corona virus. However, the information was based on an expert statement, according to which the new variant of the virus could increase the risk of infection by significantly more or less than 70 percent.
Two mutations in particular are cause for concern
The British expert panel is particularly concerned about a mutation called »N501Y« in the so-called spike protein with which the virus binds to human cells. The mutation increases the need for the virus to attach itself to human cells. It is possible that this mutation alone or in combination with another genetic modification called “69-70del” increases the transferability of the virus, according to British experts.
With the »69-70del« mutation, the information for the construction of two amino acids in the genetic material is eliminated. Sars-CoV-2 coronaviruses with the genetic modification are also suspected to affect immunodeficiency patients particularly hard. However, those infected with the new coronavirus line are not yet known to have more severe courses.
The position of the »N501Y« mutations is of greatest concern to experts. They can influence how effectively the antibodies neutralize the virus, the experts write. Several studies have shown that monoclonal antibodies are less able to cope with viruses that are mutated at position 501. However, this has never been tested with »N501Y«.
Biontech continues to consider the vaccine to be effective
German vaccine company Biontech said Tuesday that it assumed its vaccine would also be effective against the new form of the virus. “We have already tested the vaccine against 20 other virus variants with other mutations. The immune response triggered by our vaccine has always inactivated all forms of the virus, ”says Biontech chief Uğur Şahin.
The European Medicines Agency approved the vaccine on Monday night.
The new corona virus line has spread mainly in London, in the south-east and east of England since September. However, there are also first cases in Scotland and Wales, as well as in states outside the UK, such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia.
Probably already in Germany
The variant has not yet been detected in Germany. However, experts consider it likely that it would also be found in this country if full genetic analyzes of the virus were performed more frequently.
“I think that is already in Germany,” Drosten said Monday morning on Deutschlandfunk. Other researchers such as bioinformatician Richard Neher from the University of Basel (here) and specialist in infections and tropical medicine Michael Hölscher from Munich University Hospital (here) see it in a similar light.
On Monday, Drosten was cautious about the possible increased likelihood of infection. “I’m not that worried about it right now. However, I am, like everyone else, in an unclear information situation. That has changed now.
