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When 14 million people can appoint their mayors, their district administrators, their city councils, and their district assemblies, then that in itself is super election Sunday. Local elections in the most populous federal state are also important because this time they are also a national political barometer for the CDU, the SPD and the Greens. Even question K plays an indirect role this time. How is the CDU doing with Prime Minister Armin Laschet, who wants to run for chancellor? Is there a push from Olaf Scholz for the Social Democrats or do they even have to worry about their “heart” Dortmund? Will the rise of the Greens, who managed to overtake the SPD in the May 2019 European elections continue?
Public interest in getting a quick impression of the top trends is correspondingly high on Sunday night. Shortly after the polls closed at 6pm, the WDR released a forecast from Infratest Dimap, which of course can only be very preliminary because local elections are made up of many different elections. However, the numbers provide initial guidance.
According to the forecast, the CDU will remain the same as the municipal party that has grown stronger in NRW since 1999. It reaches 36 percent and can approximately defend its value from six years ago; the result should also pay into Laschet’s account. However, from a social democratic perspective, the prognosis is extremely dismal. For many decades, the SPD was the dominant force in North Rhine-Westphalia, but in 2014 it was still at 31.4 percent. Its decline on the Rhine and Ruhr continues unchecked. Now it only reaches 23.5 percent. The real winners of the local elections are the Greens, who have risen from 11.7 percent to 19 percent. In the Cologne Council they are clearly establishing themselves as the strongest parliamentary group. In the largest city in North Rhine-Westphalia, the SPD and CDU achieve their worst results in municipal elections. According to the forecast, the AfD will improve to 6 percent after playing only a minor role in 2014 at 2.6 percent. According to the forecast, 4.5 percent voted for the FDP. This roughly corresponds to the 2014 result. The left is 4 percent slightly below the 2014 result, when it had reached 4.7 percent.
First forecasts for Dortmund and Cologne
At around 7 pm, WDR wants to publish the first forecasts for the mayoral elections in Dortmund and Cologne. In its “heart chamber” in Dortmund, the SPD has nominated former economic promoter Thomas Westphal. He has a good chance of entering the second round of the elections in two weeks as clear first place. Furthermore, the SPD should remain the strongest force in Dortmund.
According to a poll from early September, CDU candidate Andreas Hollstein and Greens Daniela Schneckenburger went head-to-head for second place in Dortmund. In Cologne, the mayoral election seemed to have taken place beforehand because the current incumbent Henriette Reker was created and jointly supported by the Greens and the CDU. However, it was initially unclear on Sunday night whether Reker would not have to go to the second round of the election.
The first results from Düsseldorf, Bonn and Aachen were eagerly awaited. In Düsseldorf, the CDU hopes that there will be a runoff between its candidate Stephan Keller and incumbent Thomas Geisel (SPD). In Bonn, Green Bundestag member Katja Dörner was able to outrun the SPD candidate and go into a runoff election against the current CDU Ashok Alexander Sridaran. And only in Aachen, the hometown of Armin Laschet, does the green mayoral candidate Sibylle Keupen stand a good chance of reaching first place ahead of the CDU and SPD candidates.
Many postal voters are increasing voter turnout
A positive trend was already evident in the afternoon with voter turnout. At 51.5 percent, it was slightly higher than the 2014 share (50 percent). It quickly became clear that more people had exercised their right to vote than in the European elections in May 2019. The proportion of voters by mail was significantly higher. After evaluating random samples from eight municipalities, the percentage of postal votes was 19.3 percent. In some cities, the quota is likely to be even higher: in the North Rhine-Westphalia state capital Düsseldorf, nearly 30 percent of those eligible to vote had applied for vote-by-mail documents on Friday, this is doubled compared to the 2014 local elections. There were also long lines in front of polling stations in some cities. That was a consequence of the corona pandemic. For reasons of protection against infection, strict rules of distance and hygiene are applied in polling stations.
