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The fight for the chancellor candidacy with the CDU and the CSU? Suddenly, there is almost none of it. Rumor has it in the Union if anyone wants to race at the end of the day.
The mood is in the basement with blacks, they are caught in one of the worst crises in decades.
In the federal government, polls are falling, mainly due to the growing disappointment of the population by the political errors in the management of Corona. The loss of confidence due to the current mask scandal is likely to continue this trend, and now the CDU and its new boss Armin Laschet are threatened with two bankruptcies in Sunday’s state elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.
The Union is approaching a huge strategic problem that could ultimately mean the loss of the Chancellery after the Angela Merkel era: in Mainz, a so-called traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, which, given the surveys of the three previous partners and their respective preferences. And in Stuttgart, too, there are some signs that the three parties will soon form a government together.
It would be quite bitter if the CDU, which has ruled as a junior partner of the Greens until now, was only in opposition in its former home country, especially since in Baden-Württemberg, as in Rhineland-Palatinate, it expects the return are on occasion what the State Chancellery had done.
But even more dramatic from the point of view of the CDU is the observation after the two election Sundays: what happened in Stuttgart and Mainz could also happen in Berlin. After 16 years there is the risk of losing the Chancellery and joining the opposition.
At the CDU headquarters in Berlin and at the CSU regional leadership in Munich, these mind games have been around for a long time, even if one publicly dismisses such concerns. Internally it is said that the defense of the Chancellery has long ceased to be a “sure success”. But from the point of view of the Union strategists, the traffic light is also very dangerous because it does not serve as a ghost for voters, unlike a possible left-wing alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party.
The traffic light only scares the Union
The traffic light spreads horror between the CDU and the CSU alone. Also in the Union parties it is carefully recorded how the possible partners SPD, Greens and FDP are approaching in the federal government. Of course, it would still be necessary to clarify whether the SPD or the Greens would lead such a coalition, that is, who would go to the Foreign Ministry. Ultimately, this will be decided by the voters; it wouldn’t matter if the Union lost power.
The clearest commitments come from the SPD: the Social Democrats hope that on election Sunday it will send a signal to federal traffic lights. Rhineland-Palatinate Prime Minister Malu Dreyer wants to continue the alliance with the Greens and the FDP, and in Baden-Württemberg, Andreas Stoch’s SPD is open to a role as a junior partner in a Green-led government.
Dreyer recently told the “Welt” that a traffic light coalition was “certainly an option for the federal government.” She “always regretted” that other federal states had not adopted the model. SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz does not decide publicly whether he prefers to govern with a traffic light or an alliance with the Greens and the Left Party. But it is also clear to Scholz that a coalition with the FDP and the Greens would come from perspectives other than cooperation with the Left Party.
The Greens have a strong strategic interest in maintaining an alliance with the SPD and the FDP. He absolutely wants to avoid being considered the established junior partner of the Union even before the general election. Any power option beyond black-green is fine with the Greens. Since many top greens are skeptical of red-red-green, the traffic light seems to be an attractive alternative.
And the same applies to the Greens: if a coalition of traffic lights were to rule soon in Baden-Württemberg, this would also have a significant impact on debates in the federal government. Baden-Württemberg Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann is a black and green original and recently recommended an alliance with the Union, also at the federal level. But Kretschmann knows what signal effect it would have if a traffic light were to run in Stuttgart soon.
Above all, the FDP wants one thing: to govern
The FDP remains. The objective of the liberals is clear: they want to govern, in the federal states and soon also in the federal government. The completion of the Jamaica polls in 2017 is now generally considered a mistake. Under the new FDP secretary general, Volker Wissing, a proven stoplight has also been represented in top management since September: he is Dreyer’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister in Rhineland-Palatinate, and he would like to stay that way.
In any case, the tone of the FDP has changed noticeably: also in Baden-Württemberg, the leader of the parliamentary group Hans-Ulrich Rülke, a representative of the right-wing liberal wing, can now imagine a traffic light, five years ago it was different.
Relaxation exercises are also being conducted at the federal level. A traffic light, even under the Green Chancellery, is not a fundamental reason for exclusion; This is how the head of the FDP, Christian Lindner, sees it internally, and this is how Secretary General Wissing formulates it publicly. The deciding factor is “whether we find ourselves in government in such a way that we can bring our values and content to society,” Wissing recently told SPIEGEL.
The relationship between the Union and the FDP, on the other hand, has noticeably cooled over the years, despite the existing yellow-black coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia, even if there are still large overlaps in terms of content. , especially in the economic and economic aspects. financial policy. “The CDU has been fighting the FDP for years, since Angela Merkel became federal president, also in Rhineland-Palatinate,” says Wissing. The behavior of the Union, according to his analysis, has therefore led to the “dissolution of the old bourgeois-conservative camp.” “A black-yellow coalition has thus become one option among others, but it is no longer automatic.” It also sounds like a warning to the CDU and the CSU.
But even the alliance with the Greens, which has already been valued by many in the Union, is no longer automatic due to the possible stoplight option. Co-governing with the CDU and CSU as junior partners or moving to the Chancellery yourself with the help of the SPD and FDP – the response from the Greens should be clear.
What can the Union do about it? Be so strong in federal elections that a coalition against you is not possible. To this day, this is a difficult undertaking.
