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Boris Johnson’s cynical Brexit calculation
| Reading time: 4 minutes
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has openly threatened that talks on a follow-up deal would collapse after exiting the EU and a serious economic breakdown. Johnson said his country could withdraw from the negotiating table in a few weeks.
Boris Johnson’s “first stop” tactics are used in Europe. However, with its intention to undermine the agreement to exit the EU, a new level of escalation has been reached. The British prime minister’s plan reaches a crucial point.
VThe dispute between Brussels and London over future relations escalates four months before British membership in the EU finally ends. Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to use national legislation to undermine the exit agreement, which was signed in fall 2019 after tough negotiations.
At the same time, the conservative makes it clear to Europeans that he would rather leave at the end of the year without an agreement on future relations than a compromise with the EU. “We have to reach an agreement before October 15. If we do not find a free trade agreement by then, both parties will have to accept it, “said the prime minister just before the start of a new round of negotiations in London. A ‘no deal’ exit is ‘a good result for the UK’.
The transition period ends on December 31, during which all EU rules will continue to apply initially in the UK even after the legal Brexit on January 31, 2020. Brussels chief negotiator Michel Barnier has been holding talks on a free trade agreement with his British counterpart David Frost since the spring.
But these negotiations have stalled since they began. If they end in a “no deal”, trade relations between the island and the mainland must be based on the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Which would have costly consequences for both parties in terms of tariffs and quotas.
A provocation, especially for Ireland
Johnson’s “first stop” tactic is not new. Already in 2019, when the first part of Brexit was being negotiated with the exit agreement, he had threatened a “no-deal” until the end. At the last moment there was an agreement in which London finally made important commitments, which the prime minister saw as a victory at home.
What is astonishing in the current situation, however, is Johnson’s well-known plan for national legislation that calls into question exactly the agreement concluded shortly before the deadline. Especially the neighboring country and EU member Ireland, but also the other 26 members could see this as a provocation. In particular, these are agreements with Brussels in which London can only grant state aid to companies in Northern Ireland after consultation with the EU.
The plan hits a key point of the exit agreement: the previous guarantee that the politically highly sensitive border between the Republic of Ireland and British Northern Ireland can remain open. So London agreed to make concessions for fair competition. Otherwise, the British could give advantages to Northern Ireland companies through subsidies or lower standards, and at the same time benefit from the open border with the EU.
The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is once again controversial
“The implementation of the exit agreement remains the benchmark for British engagement in the negotiations with the European Union. London has ensured that it will respect the commitments made in this international agreement. Failure to do so would seriously affect confidence in the British government, “David McAllister MEP told WELT. The CDU politician chairs the UK Coordination Group, which has a decisive influence on the position of the EU Parliament.
A clear warning to the British side that a breach of the agreements with the EU could have a negative impact on the negotiations on future relations, which are now entering the final phase.
An immediate warning also came from Ireland, which would be particularly affected by Johnson’s plans. “That would be unwise,” said Foreign Secretary Simon Coveney. Dublin could end up being forced to close the border with the north itself to protect the EU internal market from distortions of London competition.
Scots are horrified
Meanwhile, Johnson is setting the pace: The legislative text will be debated in the lower house on Wednesday. Like the “Internal Market Bill” that will regulate trade after Brexit. The plan is also causing a stir in the UK. Johnson’s bill makes “a no-deal more likely. The resulting economic damage was entirely due to the Conservative Party. Charlatans, ”said Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon. A large majority of Scots still oppose leaving the EU.
In London, observers wonder why Johnson is heating up tensions with Brussels right now. While his “no-deal” threats are almost a habit, breaking an international treaty would take Johnson’s well-known bulldozer mentality to new heights.
In doing so, it is following the demands of hard-line conservatives, who are rebelling against the restrictions placed on Northern Ireland in the exit treaty, and risk collapsing negotiations with the EU in the eyes of others.
On the other hand, the prime minister ignores growing warnings from the national economy that a “no deal” would worsen the crown crisis. So it could be Johnson’s cynical calculation that the British will no longer really feel the damage caused by Brexit in light of the impending economic crisis in the crown.
