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Less than a year after the coup against the democratically elected left-wing president Evo Morales, the projections of private electoral institutes predict that Morales’s party “Movimiento al Socialismo” (MAS) will return to power in Bolivia in a democratic way: his candidate Luis Arce has a seemingly overwhelming electoral victory with more than 52 percent thus winning the absolute majority. The official result of the elections is expected in the next few days.
This triumph is not a surprise: in a smart move against internal party resistance, Morales had as his candidate the moderate former Minister of Economy Arce, who was consistently ahead in all the polls.
In addition, Arce applied for the race with the indigenous David Choquehuanca, an experienced diplomat and former chancellor. This means that the indigenous people, who make up the majority of the Bolivian population, are represented in the government. Arce himself is not indigenous.
Favorite and critic
The likely next president of Bolivia is considered a sensible, moderate and outgoing man. Bajo Morales was responsible for an economic policy that gave Bolivia one of the longest phases of economic prosperity and political stability in its history.
Arce is not a puppet of former President Morales, as his opponents accuse him: during the election campaign, Arce openly criticized his mentor for seeking a fourth reelection in 2016 despite a referendum that turned out negative for him. Morales himself has now admitted that this was a mistake.
However, this does not justify the fall of Morales almost a year ago. Right-wing circles, along with the police and the army, forced Morales to resign two months before the end of his constitutional term. They were based on a preliminary report from the Organization of American States (OAS), according to which serious manipulations had taken place in the previous presidential election to secure Morales’ re-election. According to experts from American universities who have analyzed the electoral process, the report was published prematurely and was partially incorrect.
The election now apparently passed largely in calm and peace. “We have recovered democracy and hope,” Arce said after the first screenings in front of his followers. He promised that MAS will “correct its mistakes” under his administration. “We learned with time and experience.” It was a rare moment of self-criticism that is not very pronounced among the Latin American left.
Now two questions arise: Will the Bolivian ruling class accept the victory of the left? And what role will former President Morales play in the future?
The first signs are positive: interim president Jeanine Añez acknowledged Arce’s victory on election night via Twitter, followed later by Carlos Mesa, who came in second.
Conflict between the highlands and the lowlands
It is unclear how radical right-wing opponents of MAS will behave in the economic metropolis of Santa Cruz. There are cultural and political conflicts between the mainly indigenous highlands with the administrative capital La Paz and the fertile eastern plains around Santa Cruz, characterized by lucrative agribusiness.
Morales’ political future is also uncertain. After the electoral victory of Arce, the first indigenous president of Bolivia, currently in exile in Buenos Aires, will undoubtedly soon return to his native land. When and under what circumstances this would happen, however, left open. When asked about his plans, he evasively replied: The priority is “restoring democracy.”
For the fragile Bolivian democracy, without a doubt, the best thing would be to wait a little longer before returning and limiting itself to a role in the background. Because even without Morales, Arce faces an extremely difficult task: in the midst of a pandemic, he has to reactivate the economy and reconcile a deeply divided society. But he also has a great opportunity: in Bolivia, it could be shown if the return of the moderate left in Latin America is more than a flash.
Moderate links course, Morales as an intermediary
After Mexico and Argentina, Bolivia is the third country in the region to take a moderate left turn. If the president of the United States, Donald Trump, were ousted from office, this movement could win even more support, for example in Chile and Colombia, where right-wing presidents do not look good.
The expectations of the MAS socialists for their new president are enormous. At the same time, they have little patience: the pandemic and political instability have pushed tens of thousands of Bolivians, who had risen to the middle class under Morales, back into misery.
Morales could play an important role here as a mediator. In this way he would help his divided country and, at the same time, secure his desired place in history as a reconciler of Bolivia.
