Armenia and Azerbaijan: what the Nagorno-Karabakh war is about

reThe conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the oldest unresolved conflict in the post-Soviet space. Although the majority of Armenians live there, Nagorno-Karabakh in the USSR belonged as an ethnically mixed “autonomous oblast” to the Republic of Azerbaijan, as a kind of Armenian enclave with no connection to the neighboring homeland.

The Armenian leadership in Yerevan made four attempts after 1945 to convince Moscow to bring Nagorno-Karabakh under its control. But the Kremlin did not want to change the status of the region because the proportion of ethnic Azerbaijanis in the region’s population continued to grow.

Tensions between the then Soviet republics began three years before the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Nagorno-Karabakh voted for Armenia’s membership in the wave of Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost and perestroika in 1988. This sparked protests in Azerbaijan.

For nationalists on both sides, the region became an almost sacred place. For the Armenians due to the many Armenian Orthodox churches of the Middle Ages and the traditions of the Karabakh Armenians, they were considered excellent fighters. The region, according to the national narrative, has always been inhabited by Armenians, and Azerbaijanis did not move until the Soviet era.

Azerbaijanis, on the other hand, remember the cultural flourishing of the ancient Khanate of Karabakh, which existed until the 18th century and stood firm against Persia for decades. For them, the region is traditionally Azerbaijani.

What was the first Nagorno-Karabakh war?

The armed struggle for the historically, ethnically, and culturally mixed area was a struggle for the national identities of the two Caucasian states. They were shaped by intellectuals from the capitals. The local reality – good relations between the two ethnic groups, frequent bilingualism, high proportion of binational marriages – suddenly no longer plays a role. The inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh became Azerbaijanis and Armenians.

Attempts to mediate failed; the violence began in 1988 with a pogrom in the Azerbaijani coastal city of Sumgait. 26 Armenians and six Azerbaijanis died. Moscow practically lost control of the two republics and an open war broke out after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Baku initially had the tactical advantage, but Yerevan eventually prevailed. Both sides committed acts that, from the opponent’s point of view, were considered war crimes and fueled mutual hatred: for example, the Azerbaijani bombing of the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, from 1991 to 1992, or the Armenian massacre of hundreds of Azerbaijani civilians in the city of Chodjali.

In the end, Armenia was able to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh and several Azerbaijani areas between the enclave and the Armenian border as a buffer zone. At least half a million Azerbaijanis have been displaced. Today, Armenia controls about 13.6 percent of the area of ​​Azerbaijan. Several UN resolutions called on Armenia to withdraw its armed forces from these areas.

As a result of the war, the previously ethnically mixed societies of the two countries became practically mono-ethnic. According to official figures, only 163 Armenians live in the areas controlled by Baku today, around 400,000 have been displaced. The number of Azerbaijanis in Armenia is also estimated at a few hundred.

Is it a frozen conflict?

The Nagorno-Karabakh war with at least 20,000 victims ended in 1994 with a ceasefire. From then on, Artsakh, as the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh is called today in echoes of the historic province of Armenia, was entirely an internationally unrecognized Yerevan protectorate. International peace efforts have been stagnant ever since.

In Armenia and Azerbaijan, the region is such an important internal factor that both parties are unlikely to make any real concessions. The democratic change of power in Armenia two years ago did nothing to change that. In Azerbaijan, an authoritarian regime is in power, which also shows no interest in clarifying the situation.

In fact, both countries are still in a state of war, the so-called contact line is monitored by only six OSCE observers. There are no diplomatic relations, the border is closed. Ethnic Armenians cannot enter Azerbaijan. Every year there are between 20 and 30 violations of the ceasefire. The so-called four-day war in 2016 was the worst escalation of the conflict until this year’s escalation.

Both sides are also steadily advancing their weaponry. Armenia benefits from being a member of the Moscow-led OKVS alliance and has cheap access to Russian weapons. Azerbaijan, rich in oil and gas, has a huge military budget and is considered a generous importer of Russian, Turkish and Israeli weapons. In terms of foreign policy, it maintains good relations with Moscow, but above all it seeks proximity to Ankara.

What does Azerbaijan want? What does Armenia want?

Baku insists on the return of Nagorno-Karabakh and other Armenian-occupied areas that are part of Azerbaijan under international law. Yerevan would like at least security guarantees for the de facto state of Artsakh and an internationally recognized land bridge between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

In exchange for the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces, a draft OSCE peace plan for the region provided guarantees of autonomy for the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the prospect of independence for Azerbaijan. However, for both parties, these plans are now considered unacceptable.