ARD Germany trend: optimistic Germans for 2021



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A narrow majority of Germans rate 2020 negatively from a personal point of view: the corona pandemic is likely to be decisive. On the other hand, 67 percent are optimistic about next year.

A good half of Germans look back on 2020 quite negatively: For 51 percent, 2020 personally was not a good year. In contrast, 46 percent develop a positive personal annual balance sheet. That was the result of Germany’s tendency to ARD morning magazine.

This means that the review for the year, which is heavily influenced by the corona pandemic, is significantly more cautious than usual. By comparison: At the end of 2016, 71 percent rated the year positive and only 26 percent negative.

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ARD Germany trend in the morning magazine

Trust prevails

67 percent of Germans look to the next year with confidence, 31 percent are more concerned. Optimism increases with household net disposable income and decreases with age. Regardless of whether you are old or young, east or west, female or male: in all population groups, trust outweighs skepticism.

This means that the outlook for 2021 is somewhat more positive than in previous years: at the end of 2018, for example, 60% were more confident and 38% more concerned.

Sunday’s Question: Slight vote gain for SPD

If the Bundestag elections were on Sunday, the CDU and CSU would receive 36 percent of the vote. The Greens would be the second strongest force at 20 percent. 16 percent would opt for the SPD and 9.0 percent for the AfD. The left would get 7.0 percent of the vote, the FDP 6.0 percent. Overall, the Union government coalition and the SPD would receive 52 percent of the vote.

Compared to the trend for Germany on December 3, 2020, the SPD gains one percentage point. The Greens and the AfD lose one percentage point each. The proportion of votes for the Union, the FDP and the Left remains unchanged.

Research facility

Population: Eligible voters in Germany
Sample: Representative random selection / dual frame (fixed and mobile network sample)
Collection procedure: Telephone interviews (CATI)
Number of cases: 1004 eligible voters
Survey period: December 7-9, 2020
Weighing: according to sociodemographic characteristics
Sunday question with separate weighting
Fault tolerance: 1.4 * to 3.1 ** percentage points
Execution Institute: infratest dimap

* with a share value of 5 percent ** with a share value of 50 percent


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