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WWhen heads of state and government meet in Brussels this Thursday, Brexit will be at the top of their agenda. However, dramatic decisions are not expected. “That after the summit it will be: shut up, debate, that will not happen,” says a senior Commission official.
Thomas gutschker
Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and Benelux countries based in Brussels.
A draft of the meeting’s conclusions circulated on Wednesday seriously affirms that the EU is “concerned” that “progress on key issues is insufficient for a deal.” Therefore, the negotiator Michel Barnier should “intensify the negotiations with the aim that an agreement can be applied as of January 1, 2021.”
On Wednesday evening, the President of the Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, conveyed this message to London in advance, in a phone call with Boris Johnson. “We expect the UK to move forward and negotiate with confidence to find solutions and fill existing gaps,” a senior EU official previously summarized.
No more talking about an ultimatum
Johnson had said in early September that an agreement had to be in effect on October 15: “If we don’t reach an agreement by then, I don’t see there is a free trade agreement between us.” From the British side it was said on Wednesday that they were concerned about the schedule. The European Union has not moved as fast as expected in the last two weeks. But it was even denied that Johnson had even given an ultimatum. After the European Council we will see.
After all, it will be the first real debate on their relationship with the UK for heads of state or government since spring 2018. It is not entirely safe. Is the EU negotiating front, which has been stable for years, showing cracks for the first time, now that the end of the transition period is drawing ever closer? After all, not all countries will suffer equally if customs duties are incurred on imports and exports to the EU from January 2021. “It will be a very sober debate on the state of the negotiations, without any discomfort” says the EU Commission calmly.
Chief negotiator Michel Barnier spoke to many stakeholders in the days leading up to the summit: on Tuesday with the European Ministers and the coordination group in the European Parliament, on Wednesday with the College of Commissioners. “As always, Barnier was focused, focused, optimistic about finding a solution, but realistic about the limits,” Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans later said. We hear at briefings that Barnier is now adopting a friendlier tone. After months of complaining about Britain’s intransigence, he is now praising the fact that there is movement, although not enough.
His counterpart, British chief negotiator David Frost, pointed to flexibility on one of the central points of contention, subsidies, last week. They talk about “whether it is possible to go beyond the usual in free trade agreements and agree on some regulations that restrict and shape subsidy policy on both sides,” he told a House of Lords committee. “It’s like so many times with our British friends,” comments a high-ranking EU diplomat: “First they reject a proposal as absolutely unacceptable, and then two weeks later they say why not, it sounds interesting, let’s talk.”
