American elections: what the election campaign is about

According to polls, no other issue moves voters more. According to polling firm Pew, 79 percent is very important. After all, it’s no wonder that the economic collapse in the wake of the crown crisis has cost millions of Americans jobs. The state aid programs that were supposed to help those affected during this difficult time have expired. A few weeks before the elections, unemployment is still 7.9 percent. The central bank, the Fed, expects the economy to contract 3.7 percent this year. It would be the steepest decline since 1946.

Despite the difficult situation, the issue offers a ray of hope for the president. In most polls, most Americans trust him and not rival Joe Biden to rebuild the country economically. To this end, Trump promises what helped him in the early years of his tenure: tax cuts and the dismantling of state regulation.

Biden, on the other hand, relies primarily on a massive tax-funded economic stimulus program to stimulate the economy again. Infrastructure modernization alone is expected to invest $ 1.7 trillion in ten years. At the same time, he wants to raise the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour. This will be financed, among other things, by income tax increases of over $ 400,000 per year. The agenda is quite popular. A recent poll conducted by the SSRS institute on behalf of television station CNN also sees Biden just ahead when it comes to the economy. The next few weeks will show if this result is more than an outlier.

This issue has also received an additional boost in view of the pandemic. According to Pew, it is very important to 68 percent of voters. Not that he needed extra attention. The dispute over the design of the health care system has been an integral part of the political debate in the United States for years. Even the passage of the Affordable Care Act, called Obamacare, ten years ago did nothing to change that.

Here too the positions are clearly distributed. Challenger Biden wants to take advantage of the law that he brought with him as vice president. His plan is to create a state health insurance option and lower the age limit for accessing the state health system for seniors. The number of Americans without health insurance should continue to decline. According to estimates by the Kaiser Family Foundation, this was almost 28 million in 2018. Meanwhile, it is likely to have risen due to the economic crisis, because health insurance in the US is often tied to the workplace.

President Trump is less specific when it comes to his plans for the healthcare system. Yet he continues to reject Obamacare. After failing to get Congress to repeal the law in four years in the White House, his administration is currently backing a Supreme Court lawsuit that could overturn the Affordable Care Act. Negotiation on the future of the law is scheduled for a few days after the elections.

In the event that the court charges Obamacare, Trump promises that patients with prior illnesses will still have to be insured by private health insurers, a key Obamacare commission. However, the president has not laid out in detail how this should look. Voters are not convinced by this vague prospect. When it comes to health care, Biden is typically way ahead of the White House man in polls.

The composition of the Supreme Court is not really a crucial issue for the electoral campaign. Traditionally, the question has been more important to Republicans, while Democrats have been less interested in it. This year, however, it is different. After the death of liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsberg and the swift nomination of his possible successor, conservative attorney Amy Coney Barrett, voters on the left of the political spectrum have now figured out the issue for themselves. According to the Pew Polling Institute, it is even more important to Democrats than Republicans. A historical change.

In the past, Trump in particular has benefited from the problem. Four years ago, he became the first candidate in history to come up with a list of the names of possible judges he would nominate. Without exception, the nominated candidates were strictly conservative. The train calmed nervous Republicans who didn’t really trust Trump at the time. This year, therefore, he repeated the step. However, since he has already been able to nominate three lawyers to the country’s highest court, his credibility in this matter is no longer in doubt.

Biden is less specific. Although he has promised to name the first black woman in court history, he has not released names. It is clear that a President Biden would appoint lawyers with a different political profile than Trump. Judges appointed by him would not question, for example, the right to abortion and would likely vote differently than the current majority in the Supreme Court on questions of voting rights or regulatory policy.

The Covid pandemic currently plays a role in almost every area of ​​life. This also makes fighting them a central electoral issue, at least for part of the American population. In no other matter is the difference between the parties greater. While, according to Pew, 82 percent of Democrats consider anti-crown strategy a very important issue, it is only 39 percent for Republicans. Overall, 62 percent of the population sees it that way.

This division reflects the importance that the two candidates attribute to the issue. Weeks ago, Democrat Biden presented a plan on how to fight the virus beginning on January 20. He put together a “war cabinet” that is already working on plans for the distribution of protective clothing and a possible vaccine, is conducting tests across the board and is preparing to reopen schools. The billions in programs are also intended to ensure unimpeded access to therapies. The candidate has not ruled out a nationwide mask requirement and, when in doubt, even new closures.

The president is different. Trump sees states in particular as responsible for solving the crisis. At the same time, his administration allocated billions to the rapid development of a vaccine and other forms of treatment. In view of the more than 210,000 deaths in the US, this cautious approach is not well received in polls. Trump’s approval ratings for his handling of Covid-19 have been dropping steadily for months.

Crime had long disappeared from the spotlight of the American public. Four years ago, the issue wasn’t even in the top 10 election issues. But in recent months, violent crime has returned to the consciousness of Americans. The reason: According to a report from the Council on Criminal Justice, the homicide rate in 27 major cities in the United States increased by more than 50 percent between June and August. Serious bodily harm increased 14 percent during the same period. The FBI also noted a sharp increase in homicides across the country during the first half of the year.

Experts disagree on the causes. Some see the development as a consequence of the pandemic and economic collapse, others link it to the protests following the assassination of George Floyd.

Trump responded to the development primarily with threats of hardship. Under his command, the United States federal government carried out an execution for the first time in nearly 20 years. When protests against police violence in several American cities turned into riots, his administration sent federal troops, also against the will of the responsible mayors and governors. All of this should underscore the “law and order” message of his campaign to win him a second term in the White House.

Biden takes a different approach here too. Among other things, he wants to fight crime through social programs, better train police officers, and at the same time strengthen federal authorities’ oversight of local law enforcement officials. According to polls, it is not entirely clear which of these approaches will have the most approval among the population. If the question focuses on violent crime, Trump is right ahead. When it comes to the largest area of ​​public safety, Biden leads by a wide margin.