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It is shortly after two in the morning in Washington when it is clear that Donald Trump will be the new president of the United States. Her rival, Hillary Clinton, accepted her defeat on November 9, 2016. The last polling stations in the United States had closed just hours earlier.
It really doesn’t go as fast as four years later. On the second day after the US election, the big questions remain: Who will run the country in the future? Trump, the headline? Or Joe Biden, your Democratic competitor? And what power base can the next president build from now on?
Trump-Herausforderer Joe Biden
Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP
In the past, single-state elections used to be an unstable party. This time, both candidates can still expect a total of five states: In Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the race for decisive voters is extremely close. (Follow developments on the live ticker).
The most important questions and answers at a glance:
Who has more chances?
Joe Biden is currently ahead. Certainly, there are currently 253 voters. Fox News television station and the AP news agency also awarded him the state of Arizona with 11 votes at an early stage. (We also refer to this data in the charts from SPIEGEL.de.) However, Trump catches up over the course of the count, CNN, for example, still giving him opportunities in Arizona. If Biden wins anyway, he only has to win in one of the four remaining states. In sparsely populated Nevada, Biden leads by a narrow margin, the 6 electorate there would be enough to get a majority of 270 votes; it would be a precision landing.
The reports and figures in the Spiegel.de charts for the US elections do not always match. The reason: Different media in the United States use different models for their calling decisions. As a result, an announcer may already consider the career in a state as determined and as called evaluates while another is still waiting. On the basis of the convocation decision, the candidates are also assigned the electorate of the respective state. At Spiegel.de we keep you informed about all serious media decisions. In the maps and graphs updated live on Spiegel.de, we refer to data from the US news agency AP.
If Biden still loses in Arizona and Nevada, he would have to win at least in Pennsylvania (20 voters) or Georgia (16) and North Carolina (15). In these three states, Trump clearly led early, but Biden is getting closer and closer. In Georgia and Pennsylvania in particular, Democrats believe they have a good chance of finally getting past the incumbent.
US President Donald Trump
Photo: Chris Kleponis / imago images / UPI Photo
Trump, in turn, can currently safely reserve 214 voters. Also, there will almost certainly be three votes from Alaska, where the count is not very advanced. Trump currently appears to be at a disadvantage compared to Biden, but that can only be a snapshot. The surest way for him to be re-elected would be to keep his leadership in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and still get away with it in Nevada or Arizona.
Why does the count take so long?
In the time of the Crown, the percentage of postal voters is particularly high this time, so high that it has a decisive influence on the overall results in individual countries. In many places, however, mail-in votes are only counted last. At the same time, Democratic supporters are disproportionately represented among postal voters. This led, for example, to Joe Biden turning things around at the end of the countdown after falling behind in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Democrats now expect a similar effect, especially in eastern states, while Trump in Arizona appears to benefit from votes that were evaluated late. However, there are different requirements in the states as to how long ballots can be considered. In Pennsylvania, for example, a vote remains valid if received until three days after the election, as long as the postmark shows November 3 as the latest election date.
In addition, there are several setbacks that can delay local results. According to US media, a water pipe burst in an arena in Atlanta, Georgia, where vote-by-mail ballots are stored. The count was temporarily suspended.
When can you expect a final result?
That depends mostly on how quickly a reliable majority is established for one of the two candidates in the particularly critical states of Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, over which even newcomers would no longer have any influence. It is quite possible that hours, maybe even days, will pass before a decision is made. Nevada has already announced that it will be a long time before a result is announced.
Above all, however, there is the threat of litigation where it is particularly difficult. President Trump had already declared himself the winner Tuesday night, regardless of the uncertain situation, and advanced his story of alleged election fraud. There is no evidence for this. It will go to the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court of the United States, Trump said. In reality, however, the fight is likely to take place mainly before the local courts of the states in question or their highest levels. Lawyers in both fields are already positioning themselves; A tough fight threatens, possibly for weeks.
How are the Congressional elections going?
The only question in this American election is who will reside in the White House in the future. The other, how much influence it will have then. At the same time as the presidency, parts of the congress are elected. Democrats already have the House of Representatives. Nothing should change that now. However, in the end, the party had high hopes of obtaining a majority in the Senate as well. Only with both cameras could Biden be able to implement his program largely unimpeded if elected.
But probably nothing will come of that. Democrats and Republicans are currently tied with 48 seats (majority: 51). But observers believe Republicans will continue to be the main force in the Senate. At best for them, Democrats can expect a stalemate. If Biden wins, his Vice President Kamala Harris could vote for a Democratic majority in the Senate.
A continued Senate dominated by Republicans would have dire consequences for Biden as president. He could not easily advance his most important political projects and reforms, as well as his candidates for high office as judge. Especially since the previous Republican Majority Leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, had already focused more on destructive lockdown than compromise-oriented politics under Barack Obama.
