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Berlin / Saint Paul – In the crown pandemic, the first wave of infections is already stabilizing in many countries. But the big question is: what’s next? Is that the end of the plague? Or are there new shoots?
Researchers in infectious medicine and epidemiology at the University of Minnesota at Saint Paul have developed three scenarios on how the crown pandemic might develop. They are based on data from other pandemics, eg. The Spanish flu of 1918, but also other outbreaks of epidemics.
BILD presents the possible scenarios.
Scenario 1
In this first scenario, the wave now emerging from spring is followed by waves that continue to decrease in summer and in the next two years. The pandemic remains with us for a long time, but it is gradually decreasing, so to speak. The occurrence of these waves can vary geographically and depends on what mitigation measures are implemented and how they are relaxed.
Scenario 2
This second scenario is the worst case scenario. Consequently, the first wave next fall will be followed by a much higher number of infections than now, which would require a new shutdown so as not to overwhelm health systems. Only in the next year the waves will flatten again until the epidemic has almost disappeared. This variant would be comparable to the Spanish flu of 1918.
Scenario 3
This scenario is the most positive (best case). According to the current wave, there would only be significantly smaller “afterburning waves” until the pandemic is finally lost.
conclusion
These are all estimates and calculations only. But American researchers also say there is no crystal ball that can safely predict what the future holds and what the “endgame” really will be to combat this pandemic.
In any case, US experts expect the pandemic to last longer, up to 24 months.
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