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Whether they are virologists, epidemiologists or doctors: almost all experts agree that the third wave of the corona pandemic in Germany will not be able to be stopped with the current measures.
A new hard block that will last for several weeks seems inevitable due to the drastic increase in the number of infections. Politicians also always use as an argument the impending collapse of the health system, an overload of intensive care units, which will soon necessitate so-called triage in Germany’s clinics.
The chairman of the board of the German Hospital Society (DKG), Gerald Gaß, contradicted him. And it sparked a storm of protests from intensive care doctors.
Gaß had described the “ongoing stress scenarios” in hospitals and intensive care units as “not timely”. “There will be no foreseeable total overload of our healthcare system or even triage in the coming weeks. There is no end to the offer either, “he told the” Bild “newspaper.
“Every seriously ill person, regardless of whether Covid or not, will receive adequate care in the clinics.” The DKG is the umbrella organization for hospital operators, with 28 member associations.
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Even more Covid-19 patients than at the height of the second wave “would not mean overload.” “In fact, we have more capacity in intensive care units than in the second wave. The big problem of corona failures and quarantine orders within the workforce is virtually eliminated. ”
In addition, there is an element of effective control: “In an emergency, we have to shut down standard care like in the first wave and focus capabilities on caring for Covid patients.”
The German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (Divi) wrote on Twitter that the DKG did not know what was already happening in the clinics: “Shame and ridicule of all intensive care unit employees.”
Divi’s Intensive Care Registry Director Christian Karagiannidis described the Krankausgesellschaft director’s statements as “unacceptable statements.” “What do waves 2 and 3 mean for staff? Much more than half of intensive care units are restricted in operation due to understaffing! ”Says Karagiannidis.
According to Divi’s intensive care registry, as of noon on Friday, 3,534 of the around 24,000 intensive care beds that were reported as usable in Germany were still free. 3,849 Covid-19 patients are currently being treated in intensive care, 56 percent of whom are receiving invasive ventilation.
At the height of the second wave, the number of intensive care patients on January 3 was 5,745. The so-called emergency reserve is around 10,400 beds. Experts repeatedly point out that, in addition to the number of available intensive care beds, it is primarily a matter of having sufficiently qualified staff.
Karagiannidis had repeatedly warned about overload in intensive care units. “Since mid-March, another 1,000 intensive care patients have ended up in hospitals. If this speed continues, we will have reached the normal capacity limit in less than four weeks, “he told the” Rheinische Post “on Thursday.
“There is now an urgent need for a strict lockdown for two weeks, mandatory exams in schools twice a week and a significantly higher speed with vaccinations in medical centers and clinics.”
Intensive care physician Dominik Scharf of the SLK clinics in Heilbronn, which operate five hospitals, also outraged Gass’s allegations on the short message service. The internal intensive care department of your clinic is “COMPLETELY” busy with Covid-19 patients. “Therefore, the system is already being used to its maximum capacity, and the numbers continue to increase.”
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The staff council of the Berlin Charité, Alexander Eichholtz, who works in intensive care, commented particularly drastically about Gaß: “From today a theorist like Gerald Gaß from @DKGev, today my first day on the job and by profession care of medicine, he hardly counted shit anymore. Desire to help get the car out of the mud. Let’s go home, comrades! ”He wrote on Twitter.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) had previously presented a forecast of how the number of intensive care patients might develop.
Based on the fact that the seven-day incidence nationwide, that is, the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week, rose from 72 to 134 in three weeks, the RKI warned in its latest bulletin that the campaign vaccination was not that far away yet. advanced to significantly influence the infection process.
About 100 days after the start of vaccination, only five percent of people in Germany were fully vaccinated on Good Friday. About twelve percent received at least the first injection.
Researchers see the contagious variant of the British coronavirus B.1.1.7, which is spreading rapidly in Germany, as the main cause of the rapid increase in the number of infections. According to an RKI analysis, it currently accounts for 88 percent of the number of infections.
According to a calculation model of the institute, an overload of intensive care units can only be prevented if the corona measures are cautiously relaxed only from May and June and then with a gradual increase until the end of summer. A large part of the population could then be vaccinated.
The RKI also writes that with a 50 percent reduction in contacts as of April 5, according to the estimate, the regular capacities of intensive care units (IST) would only be exceeded, “so the end of the reductions of contacts after four weeks leads to an increase, which ultimately also exceeds the Capacity including the emergency reserve ”.
A reduction in the number of contacts only as of April 19 would lead to “a permanent excess of real capacities, including the emergency reserve.” A 20 percent reduction in contact does not go hand in hand with a significant reduction in STI use. “For the moment, the only way to avoid overloading current capacities is to reduce the number of contacts in the population, which has increased again since March 2021, as soon as possible and comprehensively as possible,” explains the RKI in the daily.
Renowned virologists in Germany are also calling for stricter measures. Christian Drosten, chief virologist at the Berlin Charité, told “Spiegel”: “We are not going to avoid a serious blockade.” A partial blockade against the more aggressive variant of the virus was found to be ineffective in Paris and London.
[„Wir müssen deutlich unter 100.000 Toten bleiben“. Lesen Sie hier ein Interview mit des SPD-Gesundheitspolitiker Karl Lauterbach. T+]
“The incidence there has continued to rise, as has the number of severe and often fatal courses of the disease.” There is still the possibility of avoiding such a development in major German cities. “For this, however, political action and the support of as many people as possible is necessary,” Drosten said.
Braunschweig virologist Melanie Brinkmann said that if everything continues as before, “everyone will know in their most direct environment people who have been in the hospital, who have died and who suffer long-term damage.” She is angry that the warnings of science were not answered before.
“We could already be in dozens of incidents if the politicians at the federal-state conference in January had taken what we told them seriously.” Numbers can be lowered massively in four weeks if people barely have contact. “The more you squeeze all the brakes, the shorter the lock will be.”
Karl Lauterbach, health politician and epidemiologist of the SPD, called on Twitter to protect unvaccinated people of advanced age or with previous diseases by means of blocking measures: “In the coming weeks we will put many high-risk patients who now they have been waiting for the vaccine for a year. It would be a spectacular political failure, even a historical one, if we no longer had the political strength to protect them for a few more weeks before they were vaccinated. “
Lauterbach was outraged: “It’s actually crazy. Intensive care doctors are calling for a closure, so the situation is getting worse. All government advisers are calling for swift action. And we will celebrate Easter first, then we will see. Nobody makes that up so fast. “
