Corona: this is the current situation in Germany

Germany is in the middle of the third corona wave, the consequences are also felt in intensive care units. At the same time, the vaccination campaign is progressing slowly but steadily. The most important information about the current situation.

How does the advocacy develop?

The number of reported corona infections in Germany has increased dramatically since mid-February, and development has accelerated again since mid-March. On Good Friday, 18,129 new cases were reported to the Robert Koch Institute in 24 hours. The number of deaths increased by 120. The seven-day incidence is around 131 reported infections per 100,000 people per week.

The 7-day R-value has fluctuated around one for a few days, meaning that each infected person only infects one other person on average. As long as it stays that way, the outbreak will not decrease, but it will not increase either. There is still no reason to give the go-ahead.

“As part of the daily report, fluctuations in the 7-day incidence and R-value can occur on individual days and also on a few days in a row, which should not be overestimated,” writes the RKI. Therefore, the risk of a sharp increase in the number of cases remains significantly higher.

The numbers could also be less significant after Easter, as fewer people are likely going to the doctor and getting tested because of the holidays. This could lead to a misleading decrease in reported infections. At least that’s how it was at Christmas.

How big is the influence of B.1.1.7?

The fact that Sars-CoV-2 is spreading again despite contact restrictions can be largely explained by the much more contagious variant B.1.1.7. Now it dominates the infection process in Germany. That means: In the case of new infections, it is very likely that those affected have contracted B.1.1.7:

• Based on laboratory evaluations, B.1.1.7 is now doing 88 percentt of infections. Over 48,000 samples were examined from last week (KW 12/2021).

• In an analysis two weeks earlier (KW 10/2021), the RKI reached a part of 78 percent.

For comparison: at the end of January, laboratories were only able to detect B.1.1.7 in just under six percent of the samples tested, in mid-February in 22 percent, in mid-March, and then in the 72 percent (here a report by the RKI with the data).

There are probably two reasons why B.1.1.7 is more infectious than the wild type. On the one hand, those affected excrete more viruses. Furthermore, it is assumed that B.1.1.7 can access human cells more easily, as it binds more strongly to the so-called ACE2 receptor.

Variant B.1.351, which was first detected in South Africa, and variant P.1, which circulates mainly in Brazil, are also spreading in Germany, albeit on a much smaller scale. In analyzes of more than 48,000 samples, 365 were reduced to B.1.351, which corresponds to 0.8 percent. P.1 was even rarer with a participation of 46 samples and 0.1 percent.

How does the situation differ in the federal states?

According to the RKI situation report, there are currently only three federal states in Germany in which the incidence is below 100, in which less than 100 out of 100,000 people received a corona diagnosis last week: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ( incidence of 90), than Saarland (incidence of 90) and Schleswig-Holstein (incidence of 73).

The RKI documented the highest incidences in Saxony-Anhalt (incidence 164), Saxony (incidence 186) and Thuringia (incidence 245).

Out of 412 districts across Germany, only eleven still have an incidence below 50, which was once thought of as a limit for easing.

How is it in German hospitals?

The Robert Koch Institute and the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine operate a registry for which clinics throughout Germany report their bed occupancy.

• According to the daily report on Saturday, more than 3,900 people are currently being treated with Covid-19 in intensive care units.

• 55 percent of those affected are artificially ventilated.

• Compared to the previous day, the number of Covid 19 patients in intensive care units has increased by 69.

• Across Germany, almost 20,000 intensive care beds are occupied, around 3,900 are still available. In addition, there is an emergency reserve of more than 10,000 beds.

Usually two to three weeks pass between an infection and admission to the intensive care unit. Therefore, the current situation reflects the infection rate in Germany for two to three weeks. Since then, the number of new infections has increased significantly again.

This raises concerns that intensive care units will also be even busier in the coming weeks. In contrast, descending numbers are only noticeable after a delay of two to three weeks.

Specialists fear that intensive care units could be overcrowded within a month. They have been warning about the effects of the third wave for weeks and are calling for stronger measures to contain the spread of the virus. “Serious Covid-19 illnesses that need to be treated in hospital also affect people under the age of 60,” the RKI writes in a current risk assessment.

Who is infected where?

Compared to the first two waves, the infection process is currently much more concentrated in the younger age groups. “The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing again in all age groups, but especially strongly in children and adolescents, of whom there are also more and more transmissions and outbreaks,” says the current situation report of the Institute Robert Koch.

However, for those over 80, the incidence of 65 cases per week and 100,000 inhabitants is now well below the national average of 130. This shows the positive effects of vaccines.

In most cases, it is not yet known where people were infected. However, if outbreaks are reported, according to the RKI, they will particularly affect private households and, increasingly, daycare centers, schools and the work environment. Outbreaks in the elderly and nursing homes, on the other hand, continue to decline, which is also an effect of vaccines.

In order to bring as few infections as possible to schools and daycare centers, the RKI asks people to reduce contacts outside of them as much as possible and to pay attention to known distance rules and to stay at home. in the case of the little ones. signs of illness.

How many people are vaccinated now?

After all, about twelve percent of people in Germany have received the first of the two necessary doses of vaccine. That is more than one in ten people. However, so far, only about five percent of the total population has been fully vaccinated. Therefore, it will take some time before vaccines can noticeably slow the spread of the virus.

If current delivery commitments are kept, the vaccination rate could increase significantly in the coming weeks. So it’s even conceivable that all adults who want to get vaccinated could get vaccinated by the end of July, despite the difficulties surrounding the AstraZeneca vaccine.