Election in Baden-Württemberg: ecological highs: CDU continues to fall

In the Baden-Württemberg elections, the Greens have their record 2016 result according to ARD forecast may improve again. A debacle looms for the CDU, there is a close race for third place.

The voters of Baden-Württemberg continue to trust the Greens. According to the forecast of infratest dimap Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann’s party reaches 31 percent; this is a narrow point more than the 2016 record result of 30.3 percent.

Thus, there is much evidence of a third term in office for Kretschmann, who has been the republic’s first Green Prime Minister since 2011. In the conservative Southwest, the down-to-earth 72-year-old Christian believer is well greeted with his pragmatic politics. It has struck a deal with the auto industry and is implementing a green climate policy in small steps.

Failure of the CDU

However, the government’s junior partner CDU continues to fall. In the forecast, it ends at just 23 percent (-4 percent). This would even undermine the previous negative record of 1950 at 26.3.

At that time, top candidate Susanne Eisenmann hadn’t even been born. On the other hand, he shares the political responsibility for today’s poor result. His approval ratings as the top candidate and minister of education are moderate to poor. Among other things, the bitter dispute over the appropriate amount of classroom teaching in the corona pandemic may have hurt her. In addition, there is the so-called matter of masks in the parliamentary group of the CDU. Nikolaus Löbel, a member of the Baden-Württemberg Bundestag, who has since resigned, is said to have negotiated protective masks from China for a high commission for two companies in his state.

Now he could increase the pressure on Eisenmann to draw political conclusions. Some members of the regional association could now claim that things would have gone better with Interior Minister Thomas Strobl. After an internal fight, Eisenmann had prioritized the top candidate.

SPD, AfD and FDP are almost on par in the forecast

There is a close race for third place. The SPD could not use its time in opposition to be perceived as a major government watchdog. This is 12 percent, which corresponds to the poor result of 2016 (12.7 percent).

The AfD reaches 11.5 percent. This would be around 3.5 points less than five years ago (15.1%). In 2016, the party won two electoral districts directly; it is not yet clear if it will succeed again.

Liberals should be happy. They add three to four points at 11.5 percent.

The left party fails at five percent of obstacles

For the Left Party there are signs of respectable success that, however, should not be reflected in the mandates. At infratest-dimap-The forecast is 3.5 percent (+0.6 points) and, therefore, it will probably lose the entry into the state parliament again. Free voters are also gaining favor with voters – reaching 3 percent.

However, Left Co-Chair Janine Wissler was disappointed. “We missed our goal of passing both state parliaments,” Wissler said after the forecasts. “We would have wished for much more.”

About half voted by letter

The forecast should be viewed with greater caution this year. In the Corona crisis, many voters have already voted by letter in recent weeks, which could distort the ballot box at polling stations. An estimated one in two ballots nationwide was filled out at home rather than at the polling station. In 2016, on the other hand, only about one in five voters (21 percent) cast their vote by mail.

The high percentage of votes by mail could slow down the vote count. If, for example, fewer than 50 eligible voters participate at a polling station in small constituencies, the secrecy of the vote is no longer guaranteed. The electoral districts must then be merged and the ballot boxes must be moved to another location for the count.

Voter turnout decreased compared to 2016. According to estimates, 62.5 percent of the electorate voted. A total of around 7.7 million people in Baden-Württemberg were eligible to vote, including around 500,000 first-time voters.

Is there a “green light” coming now?

It is true that the Greens will also lead the next governing coalition. But with who? In mathematical terms, both a green-black edition and a green “traffic light” with FDP and SPD are possible. All parties have ruled out cooperation with the AfD from the start.

According to SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil, the Baden-Württemberg Social Democrats are ready to join a government. Prime Minister Kretschmann must decide now if he wants this. “There are majorities beyond the Union,” Klingbeil clarified. However, he admitted that he was “not satisfied” with the outcome of the elections.

Presumably Kretschmann will explore both options before starting coalition talks. The newly elected state parliament will presumably meet for its constituent session in May.

Schäuble: “A choice of personalities”

Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble sees no signs for the Bundestag elections in the fall in today’s two elections. “That was a choice of personalities,” said the CDU politician at the ARD. The personalities of the two heads of government would have tipped the balance “by far.” “This is not a pleasant night for the CDU,” Schäuble admitted. “But that was predictable.” Now it is a question of guaranteeing stability in both federal states.