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Wednesday, March 10, 2021
RTL / ntv trend barometer
For the Union goes further down
Both the CDU / CSU and the Greens yield one percentage point. Most Germans are pessimistic about economic development in Germany. Moods in the federal states differ considerably.
The downward trend in the Union continues: Compared to the previous week, the CDU and CSU have lost another percentage point and still reach 33 percent on the trend barometer. The Union also achieved the same value in the 2017 federal elections (32.9 percent). As in the previous week, this is the worst value since March 2020.
The Greens also lose one percentage point, reaching 18 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 8.9 percent).
The FDP and the AfD each win a point, nothing changes for the SPD, the left and other smaller parties. Social Democrats hit 16 percent (20.5 percent) on the trend barometer, the AfD at 10 percent (12.6 percent). The FDP and the left are both 8 percent (10.7 and 9.2 percent, respectively). 7 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2 percent). At 22 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided is slightly below the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8 percent).
According to the current voting intentions of the Germans, 737 MPs would move to the Bundestag. The Union would get 18 seats and the Greens 75 seats. All other parties would lose. The distribution of seats in the new parliament: CDU / CSU 264, Greens 142, SPD 126, Linke 63, FDP 63 and AfD 79 seats.
In the context of disputes over current Corona policy, confidence in the Union’s political competence is also declining. Compared to the previous week, the CDU / CSU competition value has dropped five percentage points to 30 percent. That is ten percentage points less than in early January. However, the SPD and the Greens each trust only 6 percent of citizens to better cope with problems in Germany. 8 percent consider that one of the other parties is competent, 50 percent do not approve that any party has political competition.
Habeck and Scholz almost on par with Laschet
In the case of chancellor preference, CSU chief Markus Söder may consolidate his leadership this week: If the Germans could directly elect their chancellor, 37 percent would opt for Söder (plus 1 percentage point). Green leader Robert Habeck would face Söder with 18 percent (minus 1), SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz with 15 percent (unchanged).
If the Union parties nominated the new CDU president, Armin Laschet, as a candidate for chancellor, he would currently be almost on par with his rival candidates: Laschet would reach 22 percent (unchanged), Habeck at 21 percent ( minus 1), Scholz at 20 percent (plus 2).
The most pessimistic live in Saarland
With regard to the economic development of Germany in the coming years, the majority of Germans remain pessimistic: 48 percent fear that the economic situation will worsen. 27 percent expect an improvement (minus two percentage points), 22 percent do not expect any change.
Relative to individual federal states, the assessments are very different. Forsa asked almost 8,000 German citizens about their economic expectations. The most pessimistic live in Saarland: 67 percent of Saarland residents fear that the economic situation in their state will worsen; only 9 percent expect an improvement. The economic future is also assessed particularly pessimistically in Bremen (56 percent), Berlin (53 percent), North Rhine-Westphalia (51 percent) and Lower Saxony (50 percent). Hamburgers, Brandenburg and Schleswig-Holsteiners, on the other hand, do not see the future of their countries as black: in Brandenburg and Schleswig-Holstein 40 percent each, and in Hamburg 38 percent expect economic conditions to deteriorate.
Economic expectations in the federal states
The economic conditions in the respective federal state will change in the coming years
improve / worsen
- Hamburg: 28/38
- Brandenburg: 28/40
- Schleswig-Holstein: 24/40
- Bayern: 26/44
- Baden-Württemberg: 21/42
- Thuringia: 21/45
- Rhineland-Palatinate: 18/43
- Saxony-Anhalt: 15/43
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: 18/46
- Saxony: 19/48
- Hesse: 19/48
- North Rhine-Westphalia: 18/51
- Berlin: 20/53
- Lower Saxony: 14/50
- Bremen: 11/56
- Saarland: 9/67
(Missing 100 percent information: “remain unchanged” or “don’t know”).
Data on party and chancellor preferences, as well as political competition, were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from March 2 to 8, 2021. Database: 2,510 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points. Data on economic expectations in the federal states was collected from February 18 to 26, 2021. Database: 7,980 respondents.
