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That is why we are at the beginning of a new wave of diffusion “
According to the calculations of a professor of pharmacy, the third crown wave will be as strong as the second. Christian Drosten believes this has already started, but is optimistic at one point.
NorthAccording to various experts, Germany is facing a third wave of the corona pandemic. Christian Drosten, chief virologist at the Berlin Charité, even thinks that the next wave has already started. He said it in a podcast of the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”.
Drosten was referring to the rapid spread of new virus mutations that had already manifested in other countries. “So you just have to believe in these data and also believe in this modeling, and that is why we are now at the beginning of a new wave of diffusion,” says the doctor.
However, he was confident that vaccinating many especially vulnerable groups would have positive effects on mortality. However, vaccines are not yet far enough away to noticeably slow the spread of the coronavirus in Germany.
According to the calculations of the Saarbrücken professor of pharmacy, Thorsten Lehr, the third crown wave will be as strong as the second. “I am already assuming we will have the same conditions as before Christmas,” said the corona forecasting expert at the dpa news agency in Saarbrücken.
He calculated that in the first half of April, incidents of around 200 could be reached in seven days.
Two developments are responsible for the renewed increase in crown numbers. For one thing, the British mutant, which is likely 35 percent more contagious, is on the rise in Germany. “Here, too, it will take advantage and continue to climb to the 90-plus range,” Lehr said after analyzing the latest “Covid Simulator” figures at Saarland University.
On the other hand, he has seen more contacts since mid-February, which would have led to higher numbers. “I’m afraid this has something to do with the fatigue from the confinement. And maybe with a restart of normal life in certain areas ”. Now the openings are imminent, such as those of hairdressers and other businesses from March 1 or additional steps from March 8. “Even if the easing is moderate, it will have an impact.”
The effect of the vaccines is hardly noticeable at this time. This is due to the fact that more than 95 percent have not yet been vaccinated. The effects can only be seen after vaccinating 30 percent of the population. “In an optimistic scenario, I would hope that we would have done it in June.”